In the dark odds...

[gomberg]

After reading some hands about Dan N. playing blind in the 10-20 bellagio game and putting that guy all-in on a 679T3 board (or something like that) knowing he had high cards, the guy folded his AK even though Dan N. never looked at his cards. Was it a good fold? What are the odds of the AK winning that pot against a random hand? I figured it out - and was sort of surprised from an intuitive standpoint.

Odds in white:
<font color="white"> AK is a 3:1 underdog at showdown - even AA-JJ is only around 70% to win on that board to a random hand </font>

[kagame]

what a great value bet

[Greeksquared]

I dont see how this is suprising. Any 3,6,7,8,9,t, and your beat. 6 out of 13 cards. Blindly given 2 chances hitting any one of these cards plus 5 percent chance you have a pair. 25 percent chance of not hitting both cards = 3:1 favorite

[gomberg]

Just right off, I figured AK was a dog, but not that big of one w/out thinking about it at all... I was thinking like upper 30s% to win, not 25%...

[technologic]

i was there, and the board was actually

35679 by the end of the hand.

so any 3,4,5,6,7,8,9 wins not to mention possible 22,TT,JJ,QQ,KK etc.

[technologic]

negreanu actually flipped 8Q for the win.

[Logik]

[ QUOTE ]
i was there, and the board was actually

35679 by the end of the hand.

so any 3,4,5,6,7,8,9 wins not to mention possible 22,TT,JJ,QQ,KK etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming there was no flush possibility:

Player 1 holds AK
Player 2 holds a random hand

Board is 3c 5c 6d 7d 9s

I just made up the suits for discussion purposes.

11,880 games 0.062 secs 191,612 games/sec

Board: 3c 5c 6d 7d 9h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 19.8485 % [ 00.19 00.00 ] { AKo }
Hand 2: 80.1515 % [ 00.80 00.00 ] { random }


---


Statistics favor the fold

[mgsimpleton]

what about if the board had not been so perfect? what are the odds on a 3468J board of being good against AK? (i don't know how to do this on the odds calculator) something tells me AK is still a pretty good fold...

[Huskiez]

[ QUOTE ]
knowing he had high cards

[/ QUOTE ]

He actually put him squarely on AK. He said after the turn action (before river was dealt) that if the river was not an A or K, he was going all in. So he would have pushed on a Q or J.

Superb hand reading.

[gomberg]

AK is still only 36% on that board - so a pot bet should be called [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]