my first value bet question in a long time

[baronzeus]

FWIW my reads are weak here because PAHUD/pokertracker are both not working and its only my 3rd or 4th orbit.

is this worth it? hes pretty laggy but he had "autoraise" on preflop, meaning he probably has something good...when he capped i knew he had a reasonable hand. what do you think? he's tricky enough to c/r me here too, but that would be an easy fold. i think he plays decently well postflop and will fold his trash, (also he probably would have folded his uber trash (77 or less) earlier than here)

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">SB caps</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks

[wheelz]

not worth it dawg. he has to have exactly JJ and be willing to call with it... just don't spend that extra $60 he probably saved you all in one place

[Spicymoose]

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not worth it dawg. he has to have exactly JJ and be willing to call with it... just don't spend that extra $60 he probably saved you all in one place

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What about having KQ and scared that baronzeus has an ace?

I like valuebetting here, I most of the hands that have you beat are betting this river most of the time. He will call you with worse hands sometimes, and you won't be walking into a check raise that often.

[RunDownHouse]

Its hard to say without an idea of some kind of capping range. But I think we can say its AA-TT, AK-AJ (AT?), KQ. Maybe add KJ and 99, maybe? Even so, most of that range has you beat pretty soundly by the river- you're only ahead of KQ, JJ, and 99 if you want to include that. I check.

I think we can tweak his range enough so that its a close call, but then that range would have some pretty wild/unlikely stuff.

[Spicymoose]

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Its hard to say without an idea of some kind of capping range. But I think we can say its AA-TT, AK-AJ (AT?), KQ. Maybe add KJ and 99, maybe? Even so, most of that range has you beat pretty soundly by the river- you're only ahead of KQ, JJ, and 99 if you want to include that. I check.

I think we can tweak his range enough so that its a close call, but then that range would have some pretty wild/unlikely stuff.

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I think once he checks the river, you really have to tweak his range. I don't really know how many people, or how often people like to do a check raise here (although with all these "sexy posts", I guess people are doing it more often), but I think once he checks, it decreases the likelyhood pretty significantly of him having a bunch of the hands that are ahead of you.

[Surfbullet]

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I think once he checks the river, you really have to tweak his range. I don't really know how many people, or how often people like to do a check raise here (although with all these "sexy posts", I guess people are doing it more often), but I think once he checks, it decreases the likelyhood pretty significantly of him having a bunch of the hands that are ahead of you.

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This is the classic "You have to be good 55% when called." From his point of view, he certainly could have a hand like AJ that looks at the board and says to himself "Damn, i'm behind to every hand he could hold except KK and JJ, better check so I don't get raised."

Add in the times he's trying to c/r you and I think this is a check, and the situation has to work pretty hard to convince me not to value-bet.

Surf

[mscags]

This is interesting because if this player has any type of normal capping standards than the only thing that you beat is JJ, but in blind wars people do stupid things sometimes. I think I value bet this with the intention of folding to a raise and hope for the best. It looks like to me that villian got over aggro preflop with a weaker holding probably thinking that you were just playing back at him. Just my two cents though, interested in the outcome here.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Its hard to say without an idea of some kind of capping range. But I think we can say its AA-TT, AK-AJ (AT?), KQ. Maybe add KJ and 99, maybe? Even so, most of that range has you beat pretty soundly by the river- you're only ahead of KQ, JJ, and 99 if you want to include that. I check.

I think we can tweak his range enough so that its a close call, but then that range would have some pretty wild/unlikely stuff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think once he checks the river, you really have to tweak his range. I don't really know how many people, or how often people like to do a check raise here (although with all these "sexy posts", I guess people are doing it more often), but I think once he checks, it decreases the likelyhood pretty significantly of him having a bunch of the hands that are ahead of you.

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even if you tweak his range, he has to actually call with those hands to make it worth it.

[I am fish]

He could have an Ace or a Queen and have checked the river if he felt you were on a flush draw.