Raise or fold situation?

[beta1607]

7 Card Stud High ($5/$10), Ante $0.5, Bring-In $2 (hand converter)

3rd Street

Seat 1: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 2: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes
Seat 3: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 8: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds

too tight or just about right?

[bholdr]

just right, good fold.

you have a dead T, a dead J, dead ends to your straight potential, three dead spades, and a T that completed after a J called- screams big pair to me...

[Roland]

I was going to say I call and see what develops. I’d just call to keep the pot small, and then, if seat 1 doesn’t catch a club on 4th or 5th, I’d raise 5th to get it heads-up with what is hopefully split tens (otherwise fold).

Js Ts Jh 196337 39.27 303628 60.73 35 0.01 0.393
8c Td Th 141642 28.33 358336 71.67 22 0.00 0.283
Jc 7c 5c 161979 32.40 337994 67.60 27 0.01 0.324

On the other hand, seat 1 might have an over card, and then you’re in trouble:

Js Ts Jh 175186 35.04 324733 64.95 81 0.02 0.350
8c Td Th 132883 26.58 367098 73.42 19 0.00 0.266
Ac Jc 5c 191850 38.37 308088 61.62 62 0.01 0.384

So it appears I’m too loose in this spot, and you and bhodr are correct.
Oh yeah, and I think 3-betting is your worst option here, since it forces you to play a big pot with a very dead hand, and that is terrible.

[Andy B]

Why is he in trouble in the second scenario? He has .350 equity and is putting in .333 of the money. Of course, I count three other players in this pot. The <font color="red">7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]</font> has paid good money for his hand. Give him some cards too. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I am assuming that the raiser's most likely hand is split Tens. Our hero figures to be ahead on third street most of the time, and while his hand may be a little dead, so is the raiser's, only he doesn't know it yet. I wouldn't get married to this hand, obviously, but I'm seeing fourth for one bet every time.

And if hero were to raise, it wouldn't be a three-bet; it would be a two-bet. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[BeerMoney]

I'm ok with the fold. Your hand is pretty dead. Spades are out, 9, Q are out, a J and a T are out.. Not the best hand in the world. But, I was pretty surprised with the sims.

[RandomUser]

I call this every time and reevaluate on 4th and 5th street, maybe it is a leak.

If he has TT you are ahead, obviously.

If he has QQ+/T you are behind, but you will know when he hits his two pair by pairing his board.

I'd agree with raising if not for the fact that many of your cards are dead. If you had all live cards, I'd raise and try to get it heads up.

Raising will also give you more information, since he will most likely reraise if has QQ+ in the hole.

[Bartholow]

The real problem with dead hands is when it turns out you are behind. Your suckout potential has gone down a lot. I don't have time right now, but maybe someone will do some sims where one of your opponent's has queens or kings in the hole.

[RandomUser]

The dead cards drop you about 2%. But if your opponent does have the big pocket pair things are a lot uglier than I realized.

Here's a worst case scenario:

pokenum -mc 500000 -7s ts js jh - qc qd td - as jc jd - kd 7h 7d
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Ts Jh 71269 14.25 428592 85.72 139 0.03 0.143
Qc Qd Td 168846 33.77 331147 66.23 7 0.00 0.338
As Jc Jd 101074 20.21 398787 79.76 139 0.03 0.202
Kd 7d 7h 158665 31.73 341328 68.27 7 0.00 0.317

With the dead cards:

pokenum -mc 500000 -7s ts js jh - qc qd td - as jc jd - kd 7h 7d / 9h 4s 3s qs
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Ts Jh 61646 12.33 438177 87.64 177 0.04 0.123
Qc Qd Td 140569 28.11 359431 71.89 0 0.00 0.281
As Jc Jd 113814 22.76 386009 77.20 177 0.04 0.228
Kd 7d 7h 183794 36.76 316206 63.24 0 0.00 0.368

After playing around with the simulator, I honestly could not come up with a reasonable set of opponent cards that would give Hero &gt; 25% equity in a 4-way pot. I was very surprised. Guess I should be folding this instead of calling.

About the closest I got was the following:

pokenum -mc 500000 -7s ts js jh - qc qd td - 3c 3d jc - 2c 7h 7d / 9h 4s 3s qs
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Ts Jh 123404 24.68 376560 75.31 36 0.01 0.247
Qc Qd Td 162017 32.40 337949 67.59 34 0.01 0.324
Jc 3c 3d 82242 16.45 417751 83.55 7 0.00 0.164
2c 7d 7h 132297 26.46 367700 73.54 3 0.00 0.265

Interesting as well is if you reraised to get heads up against a bigger pair, you end up with:

pokenum -mc 500000 -7s ts js jh - qc qd td / 9h 4s 3s qs jc 7d
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Ts Jh 176554 35.31 323426 64.69 20 0.00 0.353
Qc Qd Td 323426 64.69 176554 35.31 20 0.00 0.647