Gambling on 4th down article

[Runner Runner]

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The fact is that almost all coaches play too safe on fourth and one. Maybe they worry about their job and it is the fault of dumb owners. In any case there is no excuse for a coach to be unaware of these techniques any more than a poker player has an excuse for not knowing card combinations. They might win without that knowledge, but they don't deserve to.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is bang on, but let's not forget the role of the media and the general public in this. Most people are generally way too risk averse. How many times do you see a coach after losing a game get bombarded with questions about why he went for it in a certain spot compared to the amount of questions he gets for why he didn't go for it. The general public's lack of knowledge about a good gamble is the root cause of these coaching mistakes.

[Shoe]

I agree, I always tell my friends I would make a great football coach because I would coach the same way I play Madden. Actually, I would be a terrible coach, but I think I would make a good play caller.

Teams should also go for the surprise onside kick more as well. It succeeds about half the time, I don't know how that isn't +EV.

[BarronVangorToth]

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It succeeds about half the time, I don't know how that isn't +EV.

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Video game EV <> Real life EV

Unfortunately.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com
GTA:SA 4Life

[David Sklansky]

Onside kicks need not succeed anywhere near half the time to be a good bet. The EVs in this article, if at all accurate, make that clear.

[BarronVangorToth]

I think part of the joke is that in video games they work a disproportionate amount of the time.... There, they are ALWAYS +EV. In real life, however, yes, probably worth trying more often than they are.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com

[The Dude]

Great topic selection, David. I often marvel at some of the blatant errors made by coaches and managers in different professional sports. Really, how can they not know these things and get to be in the positions they're in?

[andyfox]

I can't speak for football, as I know little about the sport, but in baseball, the short answer is that the teams are, generally, run by ignoramuses. Many of them simply refuse to acknowledge that knowledge of the game has incrased tremendously in recent years with the advent of sabermetric methods. What used to be taken for granted (about, for example, sacrifices, stolen bases and batting average) has been shown to be worthless. Yet managers and general managers continue to do things the old way beause that's all they know. Baseball, to a large extent, prides itself on its traditions, and some managers continue to manage as if the game was the same as it was when only half as many runs were being scored as are now.

[Jman28]

Great article Sklansky. I think about this all the time. I'm always baffled by coaches' ack of understanding of simple probability and EV concepts.

-Jman28

[Shoe]

[ QUOTE ]
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It succeeds about half the time, I don't know how that isn't +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]


Video game EV <> Real life EV

Unfortunately.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com
GTA:SA 4Life

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not talking about onside kick success from a video game, the half the time stat was from the onside kick success stats that the announcers put up during one of the games. Even when teams are expecting an onside kick, it still succeeds around one-third of the time. If that rate is sustainable, I would think it would be worth doing almost every time. Unfortunately, I cannot find a website with these stats to confirm.

Edit: for the 2004 regular season, onside kicks were successful 23.4% of the time (11 out of 47). It does not say how many of these attempts were "surprise" onside kicks. Also, not sure if that is a big enough sample size.

[RunDownHouse]

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Video game EV <> Real life EV

Unfortunately.

[/ QUOTE ]

The success of surprise onside kicks is well over 50%. I want to say its around 70%, but I don't remember the precise number. TMQ often writes on this subject and has a precise stat.