20-40 River Decision: Make the laydown?

Jeffage · #1 10-14-2003, 12:32 AM

20-40 at Taj. I have K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and call after a few limpers in Mid-Late position. SB folds, BB checks. Flop comes A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Ok, I like it. Check to me, I bet (yea I know, some might say to wait till the turn but this table is loose and people would call down with an ace no questions...plus the superman move is often a dead giveaway in this spot). Anyway, only the BB calls. The turn is another 8. He checks, I bet 40, he calls. The river is very ugly. A third 8. He hesitates and bets. Can this ever be a bluff? I'm getting about 6.5-1 but how can he not have a pair here? And if he flopped a lower flush, he'd prob check the river also or have raised the turn. Could you lay this hand down head up?

Jeff

Dynasty · #2 10-14-2003, 01:15 AM

I always call there and often get shown something like Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], or J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

glen · #3 10-14-2003, 03:16 AM

Call. I don't think you'll see Jd2d like dynasty suggested because, as you said, he would probably check-raise the turn with a made flush. You will see alot of busted draws here. I see this move all the time on party. I would, however, fold to a really weak tight player, and you should be able to tell if that's the case. . .

DocHollyday · #4 10-14-2003, 03:23 AM

Ok, lets take a look how many cards will beat your flush. there are 3 aces, 3 sixes and 1 eight, that are 7 cards out of 45 cards, makes it about 6-1 that he has got a full by now. Depending on the player you should probably call. It's a tough decision, all you can beat is a bluff or a lower flush.

glen · #5 10-14-2003, 03:59 AM

"Ok, lets take a look how many cards will beat your flush. there are 3 aces, 3 sixes and 1 eight, that are 7 cards out of 45 cards, makes it about 6-1 that he has got a full by now. Depending on the player you should probably call. It's a tough decision, all you can beat is a bluff or a lower flush."

I don't recommend this type of thinking here - thinking of how many cards make a full house out of the deck. I think you should just focus on the action. Also, you don't factor in any pocket pair, which also beats him, and it very unlikely that a six fires out a bet. Anything pair lower than an ace probably isn't going to bet, which stragthens the argument that a call is correct. After all, the action was check-call, check-call, isn't that consistent with someone chasing a naked diamond like a queen or a jack. The pause before the bet seems like an "*%$#, I missed, but maybe with that river I can buy it. . ." Don't you think?

DocHollyday · #6 10-14-2003, 04:04 AM

Oops, I forgot the pocket pairs (it's early in the morning here

).

I agree, it is more likely a fold than a call, but again depends also a bit on the player.

glen · #7 10-14-2003, 04:08 AM

It does depend on the player, but is the fact that you said it's more likely a fold than a call another early morning thing, because I was trying to say it was the opposite. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

DocHollyday · #8 10-14-2003, 04:13 AM

Ok, forget this post man! [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

I.Rowboat · #9 10-14-2003, 05:53 AM

I think this is very dependent on what you think he puts you on. If you think he puts you on the flush, you obviously cannot have a pair; the third 8 (or another A) is a great card for him to bet in this situation. And to me, your flop bet says "weak flush", not "nut flush," so calling on the flop with some sort of pair/face flush card isn't so horrible for him, especially if he thinks he might pick up one of the limpers between you and him to put more money in the pot.

As for his call on the turn, is it such a horrible call for him if he limped on the BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]? If he has top two pair and one of the remaining diamond face cards, this is not a bad call on the turn, but maybe he's too weak a player to check raise you??

Personally, I don't see him calling your flop bet with a weak Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] from EP with two limpers behind him. I think it is much more likely that he might have one of the AJ or AQ hands I mentioned. If he's a weak player, he might even have some sort of crappy naked A that he was going to pay you off with and his bet here still represents a value bet of his full house, not a bluff.

If I was worried about my table image being weak tight I might call here, but I could also see folding without remorse.

mikelow · #10 10-14-2003, 10:46 AM

I would call. You may still have the best hand 20% of the time. Leave the river laydowns to the pessimists or the super hand readers.