Blind war...river checkraise?

[Josh W]

Party 30-60.

All fold to me in SB, I raise w/ 88, BB calls.

Flop A24, two spades. Bet, raise, threebet, call.

Turn is 6h, putting two hearts out there, too.

Bet, raise, call.

River 8d. Checkraise or bet out?

Thanks,

Josh

[Solami17]

Bet. If you check to him is likely that he will check a weak ace or a missed draw. Check/raise will only work if your knowledge of the player is strong enough to know that he will bet one last time, in which a C/R will get you one more BB.

[Lmn55d]

I'd go for the checkraise. After he called the flop 3bet and raised the turn I think it's very likely he has a strong hand that will bet the river. He couldn't really expect you to fold the turn so I don't see it as a free showdown raise or anything.

Betting might allow you to 3bet, but I think most of the hands he would raise a river donk with would 3bet a checkraise (2 pair and lower sets), allowing you to cap. He's not gonna put you on 88 or anything and the diamond didn't complete any draws, so he's gonna 3bet sets almost always and 2 pair most of the time. If you have any fear of him checking behind (I don't see why you should) , I'd bet it. Or if you think he'd raise a river donk with weaker hands like naked aces.

[daryn]

i would bet this. when you bet turn he might have raised for the free showdown, plus i would feel really silly to have him play perfect, in other words check the river with an ace when he was ahead the whole and and lost it on the river

bet, or be owned.

[baronzeus]

honestly, whenever i go for a checkraise, they check behind every time.

[shemp]

1. A river check raise will often cost you a bet when he has two pair and you would have got 3 bets and when he has one pair hands that plan to check behind.

2. Betting the river costs you a bet when he is on a bluff and doesn't bluff raise and when he has a one pair hand that planned to bet the river and call a check raise.

I think the answer is 2 and it isn't that close.

[Josh W]

[ QUOTE ]
1. A river check raise will often cost you a bet when he has two pair and you would have got 3 bets and when he has one pair hands that plan to check behind.

2. Betting the river costs you a bet when he is on a bluff and doesn't bluff raise and when he has a one pair hand that planned to bet the river and call a check raise.

I think the answer is 2 and it isn't that close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your reasoning is only correct if he never river raises 2 pair, and I don't think that's a fair assumption.

Josh

[Josh W]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet. If you check to him is likely that he will check a weak ace or a missed draw. Check/raise will only work if your knowledge of the player is strong enough to know that he will bet one last time, in which a C/R will get you one more BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

He may or may not check a missed draw. But he certainly won't call with one.

Josh

[Josh W]

[ QUOTE ]
i would bet this. when you bet turn he might have raised for the free showdown, plus i would feel really silly to have him play perfect, in other words check the river with an ace when he was ahead the whole and and lost it on the river

bet, or be owned.

[/ QUOTE ]

Understood completely.

However....feeling/looking silly may have some metagame considerations, but I think missing a +EV situation because of fear of looking silly is, well...silly. (I'm not stating that this IS a +EV situation to checkraise, though).

Thanks,

Josh

[DcifrThs]

people do silly [censored] in blind wars.

he could have a draw w/ 1pair etc...

i think this is a fairly standard bet on the river given the action. he can also have a weak ace here putting you on a draw. anyways, i like a bet.

Barron