Fixed limit squeeze play?

[wheelz]

Have only played 6 or 7 orbits with UTG, but he definitely appears weak-tight... haven't seen him raise or bet yet, likes to call and fold. CO is quite loose passive.

Prima Poker 15/30 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls, CO calls, SB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, CO calls.

Turn: (5.5 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, CO calls.

River: (8.5 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>,

[wackjob]

I'm not betting that river. So many people are calling down any low, paired flop with A garbage. You also might have been beat on the flop. I'm checking and seeing what happens. Check/bet/call &amp; I'm folding. Check bet/fold I'd think about calling. I don't honestly think there is any value in betting here.

[wheelz]

I wasn't value betting, yes I do think there's a pretty high probability of UTG having the ten. So when the ace fell and I bet into both of them, I thought there was a chance I could get him to fold a ten (he's weak-tight, don't laugh). The CO always calls, yes there's a chance he has an ace, but he could also have any other 2 cards... pot was somewhat sizeable so I went for it

[TheMetetron]

He's not folding a ten. Not a chance in hell.

[wheelz]

guess what he actually did fold a ten... HA!

doesn't mean I should've bet though... and I still didn't win the hand [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Surfbullet]

I don't think the parlay of UTG folding a T and CO not also having a T or A occurs often enough to bet. When this bet wins you the pot you were almost certainly ahead IMO.

BTW, how did you know he folded a T?

Surf

[wheelz]

he made a comment about getting rivered [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

yeah I don't think it was a good idea either, but at the time I thought it was worth a shot, and then afterwards when I realized he really did fold a T I loved it, but... wish I didn't bet.