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M=4, Is the best move to go all in when UTG?
I would like to challege the forum to solve this problem using some math, assume no ante, and a 10 handed table with stacks greater than M=8 all of them; and most of the players are good and most likely understand desperation short stacks moves.
The options are, a) going all in with a random hand UTG or b) wait one more round, and the variable I want you to involve is the likekihood to be called by the table if you go all in. Obviously if the likelihood is 0% you should go all in, and if it's 100% you shouldn't do it with a random hand, should you? |
#2
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Re: M=4, Is the best move to go all in when UTG?
1000/2000 blinds
hero: 12k 9 other guys: 25k+ <font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> Pos. Calling Range Call % Equity UTG+1 TT+,AJs+,AQo+ 5% 72% UTG+2 TT+,AJs+,AQo+ 5% 72% MP1 99+,AJs+,AQo+ 5.4% 72% MP2 99+,AJs+,AQo+ 5.4% 72% MP3 99+,AJs+,AQo+ 5.4% 72% CO 77+,AJs+,AJo+ 7.2% 71% BT 77+,AJs+,AJo+ 7.2% 71% SB 66+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+ 8.3% 71% BB 66+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+ 8.3% 71% --------------------------------------------------------- 55% 71.5% </pre><hr /> so 55% of the time you win 3k and your stack is 15k and 45% of the time you win 28.5% of 25k (total pot), or 7125. so .55 * 15 + .45 * 7125 = 11450 stack on average. Compared to a 12k stack when you fold. But that doesn't account for you having to post 25% of your stack the next two hands. but i'm not convinceed that's bad. I got tired halfway through this, but i guess i'll post what little work i did. |
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