Another Bone Head Play

[bruce]

30-60 holdem, game is somewhat tighter than normal, but still a decent game. I open raise from the cutoff with
T7c. I felt like there was a reasonable chance I would be
able to steal the blinds. Button folds and a somewhat tricky, but loose player makes it three bets from the small blind. Big blind folds.

Flop Kc Ts 4h

Opponent checks much to my surprise and I bet and he calls.

Turn Kc Ts 4h 2d

He checks and I bet. While waiting for the turn card I had pretty much decided that if he were to check I would bet and if raised I would fold. He immeadiately calls.


River is an Ace.

He checks and I check. This is where I blew it. When he
called on the turn I thought he had something like pocket Jacks or Queens. With my river check it is now wirtually
impossible for me to win unless he has something like pocket
Eights or Nines and a bet by me is mandatory.

He has pocket Queens and I lose.

Comments appreciated.

bruce

[rtrombone]

How do you know your opponent would have folded to a river bet? I don't see how the ace changes anything if he was planning to call you down. He played the hand somewhat strangely (I would have bet or check-raised the flop), but his immediate call at the turn leads me to believe a river bet would have just cost you $60.

This is something I've been trying to work on: wasted river bets. Sometimes they're simply going to call you and it's better to save a bet.

[Dynasty]

I would never fold QQ in that spot so I don't know what you're beating yourself up over.

[Rushmore]

Most $30/60 players I know who call on the turn in this situation have decided to call down already, based on the fact that he's put you on either a draw or a ten.

The river ace shouldn't change this too terribly much.

Although I think you're right, that based on your read, betting the river would be your only chance to win, I don't see it as +EV, as I believe the decision has already been made.

P.S. This "tricky, loose player" couldn't find a check or a check raise on the flop or a bet out on either the flop or turn? He seems to have put you on a king. So why is he calling? Where is this game? Will you email me directions?

[DrSavage]

I would be calling with QQ also because if i raise and opponent has nothing he's gonna fold , netting me nothing,and if he has a king i'm getting 3-bet. By calling I might also induce a bluff or semibluff (like was the case in this scenario).

[Rushmore]

OK, then. The strategy is to check and call the flop, followed by a check/call on the turn, culminating in a check and a call on the river?

Say it ain't so.

I'd say if you bet out on the flop and get raised, you could make a decision there, sure. But if you check raise the flop and get 3-bet, you can get away from the hand.

Therefore, if he has the king, you lose 2 small bets (1 big bet) if you check raise and muck to a 3-bet.

You lose 2 1/2 big bets if you check and call all the way and he has the king.

Lastly, if he's holding a gutshot straight draw on the flop, and you check raise the flop and bet out on the turn, he might lay down his hand. This would save the entire pot for you as he would not be there to pair his ace on the river.

I dunno. I guess the real question is whether or not you can lay down to the 3-bet on the flop (part of this decision is player-specific, of course). The only time you're really going to be kicking yourself most of the time is if he has exactly Q/J, and was pushing his open-ended straight draw (but not here, as he would have made it on the end anyway).

If you can let it go to the 3-bet, I think the check raise is the best play.

[Softrock]

Actually, I think you saved $60 by checking the river - if anything the bonehead play was your opponent for letting you hang around that long and maybe catch a T or a 7.

[andyfox]

Myabe you wouldn't have folded, but maybe this guy would have. He check-called when a king came on the flop; he check-called again on the turn. So he doesn't have a king. Now he checks when an ace comes; if he didn't like the king enough to check he must certainly not like the ace.

[elysium]

hi bruce
after your turn bet fails to get him out, there is no need in beating this dead horse any further. he will surely call with any hand that beats you, and actually you did well to get the free-showdown.

the mistake on this hand is the pre-flop steal-raise against a loose opponent.