I Think I'm Playing Too Weak - How Many Bets w/ 2nd Nuts?

toss · #1 11-26-2005, 04:37 AM

Villain unknown.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 3 folds, MP2 3-bets, 2 folds, Button calls, 2 folds, Hero caps, MP2 calls, Button calls.

Flop: (13.40 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls, Button folds.

Turn: (7.70 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP2 caps, Hero calls.

River: (15.70 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 17.70 BB

Jake (The Snake) · #2 11-26-2005, 04:41 AM

I'd bet/call the river. AA is unlikely due to preflop. AsKs is a concern, but there are many other AK hands that will play this way, along with AQ or some other random stuff you beat.

imported_CaseClosed326 · #3 11-26-2005, 04:43 AM

I think there is a chance due to pre-flop. Look again.

Jake (The Snake) · #4 11-26-2005, 04:46 AM

Oops. I still bet/call, but I guess it's closer.

uw_madtown · #5 11-26-2005, 04:50 AM

Edit: The "AA preflop" thing. Nevermind.

Anyway, I play this hand the same. His turn cap shows a lot of aggression but he could be overplaying AK or have AQ. I don't know that you can bet-fold this river, but I'm not sure how much value there is in bet-calling, and I want to get to showdown against an unknown. I'd have check-called too.

Jake (The Snake) · #6 11-26-2005, 04:57 AM

Doing the math real quick, there are:

1 AsKs
11 other AK
3 AA
3 AQ

We lose 4 win 14. This of course doesn't tell us the whole story. AA and AsKs are much more likely to be played this way. Not sure if it's so much more often that we can't value bet though.

toss · #7 11-26-2005, 04:59 AM

I dunno, I guess I need more info to know the right line.

Villain showed AQ MHIG. Guess he doesn't know how to hand read.

SNOWBALL138 · #8 11-26-2005, 10:32 AM

This looks fine. Its unlikely that unknowns 3 bet AQ, and the postflop action really makes me feel AK is pretty unlikely. I think you're looking at AA too often here to lead the river.

SNOWBALL138 · #9 11-26-2005, 10:35 AM

I think hero is behind too often to bet/call the river. I tend to take unknowns pretty seriously when they wake up like that on fourth street. I doubt villain checks behind any hands that he's capping the turn with here. Check calling is superfly here.

SNOWBALL138 · #10 11-26-2005, 10:44 AM

When villain just smooth calls the flop, it makes me think "OHFUCKSETOVERSET"
The pot is prettty large at that point, so why is villain trying to let the button see the turn cheaply unless he's holding onto a monster?

The turn is good though. He's still pretty likely to be behind so I like the 3 bet, but once you get capped you can't like your chances to be ahead.