Baby Set on board that got ugly

#1 11-01-2005, 08:45 AM

Zero read on villian as this is his first hand (posts blind to play).

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.50 BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP2 ($35)
MP3 ($7)
CO ($50)
Button ($4.25)
SB ($41.65)
BB ($60.80)
UTG ($47.65)
UTG+1 ($20.15)
Hero ($113.95)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP3 calls $0.50, CO (poster) raises to $2.5, 3 folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $2, MP3 calls $2.

Flop: ($8.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks, CO bets $3, Hero calls $3, MP3 folds.

Turn: ($14.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $8, Hero ???

This is a push here right? Aside from that, what else... lead the flop?

#2 11-01-2005, 08:50 AM

how did the board get ugly? Looks like it got beautiful..unless you put someone on 77, j7, or j4, for some reason

I probably check-raised the flop...he raised preflop, so I'm guessing he might bet out again. Then i'd minraise, just to juice him for more money, and maybe even entice a reraise.

On the turn, I do it again...if he checks behind, value bet the flop.

As played, I raise the turn, but not all-in..that'll just scare too many hands away. Maybe to about 24.

#3 11-01-2005, 08:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
how did the board get ugly? Looks like it got beautiful..unless you put someone on 77, j7, or j4, for some reason

[/ QUOTE ]

What about JJ? He bet pot preflop, so thats not out of the range of possibility.

#4 11-01-2005, 08:55 AM

I find it hard to ever give someone credit for quads with only 2 on the board...it's -EV to do so imo. It doesn't happen often enough to worry about.

Hattifnatt · #5 11-01-2005, 09:03 AM

Lead the flop with something like 3/4 pot.

Now you don't have to push on the turn, a raise to something like $28 would be good.

But I think you screwed this up by not leading (or c/r which is a much worse alternative than bet out IMO btw) the flop because now he can get away from QQ, KK, AA when (if) you raise because he might be afraid you have a jack.

Hattifnatt · #6 11-01-2005, 09:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
how did the board get ugly? Looks like it got beautiful..unless you put someone on 77, j7, or j4, for some reason

[/ QUOTE ]
What about JJ? He bet pot preflop, so thats not out of the range of possibility.

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course he can have JJ the way he played it, but:
1. It's only ONE combination that makes it much less possible than anything else mathematicly.
2. You can't worry about quads with only two of them on the board in hold'em.

PinkSteel · #7 11-01-2005, 09:15 AM

I definitely lead the flop, but I never slowplay sets. Multiway on a dry board may be a very good time to get tricky with a flopped set, I don't know.

[ QUOTE ]
What about JJ? He bet pot preflop, so thats not out of the range of possibility.

[/ QUOTE ]

Certainly in his range, but his range is huge. He's in CO, and has seen no aggression so far. He could easily be playing TT, and trying to steal the pot with his flop bet, hoping no one else hit. (Paltry bet, but still.) And if he has a J, he doesn't have a boat; he didn't raise pf with J7, did he?

At the turn he could still be thinking it unlikely that someone else has a J. If he started with QQ-AA, another attempt to take it down seems reasonable. He would also bet this with AJ. Would he raise preflop w/ AJ? From CO, very likely.

I'd put him on overpair or trip Jacks and flat call turn. If you push, Jacks full will call and trips may fold. Call and lead the river for 1/2 pot value bet, hoping he pushes the rest in. There are a LOT of hands he bets here that you beat.

#8 11-01-2005, 09:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
At the turn he could still be thinking it unlikely that someone else has a J. If he started with QQ-AA, another attempt to take it down seems reasonable. He would also bet this with AJ. Would he raise preflop w/ AJ? From CO, very likely.

I'd put him on overpair or trip Jacks and flat call turn. If you push, Jacks full will call and trips may fold. Call and lead the river for 1/2 pot value bet, hoping he pushes the rest in. There are a LOT of hands he bets here that you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

So here is the action. Hero calls. River comes 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

PinkSteel · #9 11-01-2005, 10:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
At the turn he could still be thinking it unlikely that someone else has a J. If he started with QQ-AA, another attempt to take it down seems reasonable. He would also bet this with AJ. Would he raise preflop w/ AJ? From CO, very likely.

I'd put him on overpair or trip Jacks and flat call turn. If you push, Jacks full will call and trips may fold. Call and lead the river for 1/2 pot value bet, hoping he pushes the rest in. There are a LOT of hands he bets here that you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

So here is the action. Hero calls. River comes 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, you're screwed! Check/fold, baby!

That really sucks, but a lone J now beats you. I let it go to any reasonable bet.

yvesaint · #10 11-01-2005, 10:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]

So here is the action. Hero calls. River comes 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

congrats you check-called to the river with a set

this is what you get

bet something like 4 on the flop if CO is at all aggressive, and hope he raises (this is something i like to do against a big pfr)

if no one raises your flop bet, pound the turn, or check-raise

check-fold river to any sizeable bet