final tables and win%'s for MTTs

[pfkaok]

Sorry if there's tons of posts on this already, but i couldn't find anything helpful with the search. I know that these win rate type posts are dumb, as so much depends on your skill and your opponenets skill. but i was just wondering what good players who have played tons of these can accomplish in the bigger field live and online events.

obviously the number of players will be a big part of it, but will your wins be directly porportional to entrants. like you win 1/250 in a 500 people tourney, 1/500 in 1000 tourney, ect.?

i'm guessing that somebody with a 100% ROI will win slightly more than twice their share, and will make a final table about twice their share, or a little less. is this correct, or even close, assuming that this player plays all stages of the tourney with similar expertise?

[pfkaok]

so is this question just dumb/uninteresting? or are there just too many variables other than field size and ROI to have any type of accuracy?

[0evg0]

Calculated mine the other day.

Subtracting $1, $2, and $3 all-in funfests and counting $10-$200 tournaments I'm 14.5%ITM and 5.2%FT. I usually play $20-$50 NLHE/PLHE tourneys on Stars, so avg field is probably around 500 entrants, fwiw.

I'm interested too because I have no idea how this is. Some of the results (20%?) are from months ago when I was a complete donk, but I think it's a good estimate.

Oh, and subtracting the micros we're looking at a 250-300 tournament sample size.

[AtticusFinch]

Too many variables. Payout structures vary, field size varies, field strength varies, and other stupid crap can happen like everyone taking forever to play their hands even though they're in hand-for-hand mode, thus sending the blinds through the roof.

Consider, in a 200 person tourney, which I often play on Full Tilt, final table is top 5%. In a 2000 person tourney, like what I play on party, it's 0.5%. You just can't take your ROI across those two samples and say anything meaningful.

A better measure might be to ask how often you finish in a certain percentile. How often do you make it to the top 1%? That would be the final table in a 1k person event, or the last two tables in a 2k person event.

Alternatively, you can control for field size. You could use a pretty wide range, such as 1400-1800 people for the PS 11r. Even there, though, you'd have to play a few thousand MTTs before you could even BEGIN to make tentative estimates on your win-rate.

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
A better measure might be to ask how often you finish in a certain percentile. How often do you make it to the top 1%? That would be the final table in a 1k person event, or the last two tables in a 2k person event.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, yeah, thats why i was wondering if anybody had a % when related to field size... or like if there was much of a difference between say making the final table at a 1000 person tourney vs. making the final 5 in a 500 person tourney. i mean of course if everybody was equally skilled then everyone would win .1% of the time in a 1000 person field, but i was wondering just how much more often a good player could expect, and also how much say a world class player with a huge ROI could expect.

or say you played 1000 tourneys with N players. how many would you expect to win, how many top 3's or FTs would you expect to make?

[0evg0]

[ QUOTE ]
or say you played 1000 tourneys with N players. how many would you expect to win, how many top 3's or FTs would you expect to make?

[/ QUOTE ]exactly