good trend?

This question is specifically meant for sygamel or mastershakes, but anyone can feel free to give their opinion...

I was thinking of a new trend to examine:

If a team is a favorite for 4 or more consecutive games and then become 7+ point underdogs, then bet that underdog.

My reasoning is that this large swing from a consistent favorite to a big underdog shows that the general public has had an unreasonable loss of confidence in that team.

I was wondering if you think this trend would be worthwile to examine (check results from past years)?

There are probably just a dozen or so times this scenario has come up in the last 10 years. Even if the trend ends up 11-1, for ex., I wouldn't value it anywhere near its face win percentage. The sample size is far too small.

Let me give you an example. Last night I started researching a trend that needed to win 56% of the time to break even. After the first 31 scenarios, the trend was 23-8. I was pretty excited about it at that point but knew there was a lot of research left to go. After completing '92-02, the trend stood at 110-94 and had gone 87-86 over the next 173 scenarios.

If the sample size isn't significantly large, the win percentage won't matter. I do like your thinking though.

how bout something like going from a 7+ point favorite to a 7+ point underdog, or vice versa.

There's probably a good sample from that definition but it changes your hypothesis from "consistent favorite."