AQs hand - go with my read?

nothumb · #1 05-15-2005, 03:18 AM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

No reads, I'm afraid, new table.

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero raises, MP1 folds, MP2 3-bets, MP3 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.16 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets...

I felt pretty strongly this guy had a set after that call/threebet. But he could also have a draw or a smaller two pair, and I don't want to give a free card. So what's my plan here?

BTW should I three-bet this pre-flop against an unkown EP raise? Cap the flop? I'm thinking yes to both.

NT

JoshuaD · #2 05-15-2005, 03:27 AM

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I felt pretty strongly this guy had a set after that call/threebet. But he could also have a draw or a smaller two pair, and I don't want to give a free card. So what's my plan here?

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You're seeing monsters, IMO. AA and TT are the only likely sets, and neither happens very often.

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BTW should I three-bet this pre-flop against an unkown EP raise? Cap the flop? I'm thinking yes to both.

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I don't know what to think of a preflop 3-bet. I kinda like it to define MP1's hand, but I don't wanna take control of the pot. I could do either.

I don't cap the flop, You're probably beat at this point, if not you want to keep AJ betting at you.

I check-raise the turn, call a 3-bet.

nothumb · #3 05-15-2005, 03:37 AM

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You're seeing monsters, IMO. AA and TT are the only likely sets, and neither happens very often.

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Fair enough, from a Bayesian standpoint and otherwise. If I check-raise the turn and get three-bet, what do I do on the river unimproved?

I am definitely not quite as used to the aggression at 3/6, having recently moved up, although this was a fairly passive table.

NT

JoshuaD · #4 05-15-2005, 03:39 AM

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You're seeing monsters, IMO. AA and TT are the only likely sets, and neither happens very often.

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Fair enough, from a Bayesian standpoint and otherwise. If I check-raise the turn and get three-bet, what do I do on the river unimproved?

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Definitely call down, especially without a read. I don't like to make these folds at all, the pot is big and you've got some really legitimate winning chances. Too many people donk around with AK or AT on that turn.

nothumb · #5 05-15-2005, 03:41 AM

I agree. However that's only hypothetical. The real action went...

Hero bets the turn, Villain calls.

River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Hero bets. Villain thinks for a minute and raises.

NT

JoshuaD · #6 05-15-2005, 03:44 AM

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I agree. However that's only hypothetical. The real action went...

Hero bets the turn, Villain calls.

River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Hero bets. Villain thinks for a minute and raises.

NT

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Easy easy call.

nothumb · #7 05-15-2005, 03:46 AM

Yeah, no worries, I called. And got shown TT, as expected.

NT

KDawgCometh · #8 05-15-2005, 03:46 AM

I think that I'm capping that flop most often there. YOu have TP2K w/nut flush draw and a backdoor straight draw. As far as PF, I don't like threebetting OOP. DO you plan on threebetting this turn if you get raised. YOu have a mulititude of outs as you now beat AK(which the PFR could very well have), and you have plenty of redraw outs against a made gutshot. YOu now have four boat outs and nine spades. Pretty sweet going into the river IF you are now behind.

nothumb · #9 05-15-2005, 03:55 AM

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I think that I'm capping that flop most often there.

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With another player on for the ride I agree. But heads-up I'm not sure it's worth it.

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As far as PF, I don't like threebetting OOP.

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With so many callers, great way to build a big pot with a good multiway hand. Not likely that I'll shut anyone out and I'll probably only get capped by a hand that is creaming me, which would be nice to know.

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DO you plan on threebetting this turn if you get raised.

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No.

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YOu have a mulititude of outs as you now beat AK(which the PFR could very well have),

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PFR folded to my c/r on the flop, but I see your point.

I think a c/r is okay on the turn except that if he doesn't have a set, he's probably got a draw and he can take a free card. I think draw or a set are the most likely hands here, with lower two pair second.

NT

KDawgCometh · #10 05-15-2005, 03:58 AM

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As far as PF, I don't like threebetting OOP.

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With so many callers, great way to build a big pot with a good multiway hand. Not likely that I'll shut anyone out and I'll probably only get capped by a hand that is creaming me, which would be nice to know.

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this is true. I'm always 50/50 on raising PF from teh blinds in a raised pot already, there are definate arguments for it and defineate arguments against it. For me, its just what kind of mood that I'm in at that moment