2nd set on river - standard fold?

[Burdzthewurd]

1/2 Limit OH8 on Interpoker

4 callers pf, I complete in the SB with Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (eh not great, but game is either super-tight or very loose-passive), BB checks

Flop comes J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Gutshot straight draw and 3rd nut flush, meh, I check, checked around

Turn is T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I bet, BB folds, 3 calls

River 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I check, guy in MP bets, Crappy-loose player calls, CO raises, easy fold? Am I going to see 34xx too many times here? I doubt anyone has 89xxx, they're raising on the turn. Could this just be A2xx vs. A2xx? Gah, I hate the sandwich raise from nut lows

[kyleb]

Let's take a look at the math:

Preflop: 2.5 big bets
Flop: 0 big bets (2.5 total)
Turn: 3 big bets (5.5 total)

There are 5.5 big bets in the pot at the start of the river. Then MP bets, MP+1 calls, CO raises to you, making you call 2 bets into a pot of 9.5 big bets. If you assume that MP and MP+1 just call rather than raise or fold (which is likely at low limit O8), you are getting 11.5:2 or almost 6:1 on your call.

Essentially your middle set has to hold up about 20% of the time to show a profit if both players behind you just call. This seems like a decent call, even though you'll be shown 34xx plenty of times. You're also going to see two pair with A2 or maybe bottom set as well, and you'll probably see 98xx once or twice.

I'd call.

[templar999]

burd,

it's an easy fold. your hand wont be good that often enough to show a profit. i would not have bet the turn either, but you could make an argument that it's a good play and may buy you an out or two.

kyle,

sorry, but your math is entirely wrong.
1. there are 6 players preflop. that's 3 BBs.
2. turn: four more BB's go in. that's 7 BBs.
3. river: burd checks, followed by bet, call, raise. that's 4 more BB's. the pot is laying 11:2. but burd is playing for half the pot. as there's a low present. the pot is really laying 5.5:2, or at most 7.5:2 if you pick up two more from overcalls. your hand will have to be good for high around a third of the time to show a profit, not to mention a possibility of a reraise. with three opponents, two of whom have shown aggression on the river, unless you have a great read they're going to war with A2, or you've seen them go crazy with top two pair, the pot's just not big enough to risk two or more bets.

if it's one bet to you and you'd close the betting, it'd be a good call.

respectfully,
temp

[kyleb]

Ugh. My math was atrociously wrong, even failing to consider the half of the pot.

Ridiculous. Sorry for that.

[chaos]

I like your turn bet. It's good to charge the lows to draw out for half the pot.

On the river, I think it is an easy fold. It's a small pot, it has been raised and it may be reraised. I do not think you will win often enough to show a profit.

If you fold and it turns out you would have won the high, that's poker. These things happen. Be sure it does not affect your game.

[DyessMan89]

Yes, theres a split pot. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I consider this as easy of a fold as youll ever get ... this should not even be a debate. First of all, youre playing for 1/2 the pot, so your odds are drastically reduced. Second of all, you just have TT. I can see someone having JJ or a straight here 90% of the time.

[Burdzthewurd]

I don't see JJ being feasible, that's a terrible flop to slowplay top set on, and with a two-card low, it's just plain unprofitable and stupid if you like money.

[DyessMan89]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see JJ being feasible, that's a terrible flop to slowplay top set on, and with a two-card low, it's just plain unprofitable and stupid if you like money.

[/ QUOTE ]

I could understand calling if your playing heads-up ... but there are 3 others in the pot with you. In my opinion, you have to be a lot more sure of yourself when the best you could do is split the pot. If you're not 100% sure and make this crying call ... what happens if you get another raise and/or re-raise behind you? Now your stuck in a predicament you could have avoided by just getting out of the way. I could be wrong, by the way, its just my opinion. I might be tempted to make a crying call as well.

If I were to guess ... Id put one of them on A2xx, another on A3xx, and the last on 34xx.

[gergery]

Not to nitpick, but if you call there will be 13 BB in and you’d get half the pot for winning meaning you’d receive 6.5BB. To get your profit you subtract the 2bb you called with to get 4.5.

So your odds to call here are 4.5 to 2. I think you overlooked the fact that you won’t get back one of those BBs you call with here as the low side takes it.

For perspective, the chances someone was dealt 34/48 for the straight is roughly 75% of the time. Obviously those hands might be folded but its not exactly a rare occurrence for someone to have a hand that beats you.

-greg
www.o8poker.com

[Buzz]

Burdz - Trouble is, there was no flop bet. Considering your cards and the board, somebody will have been dealt 34XX roughly half the time, and if so, might not see the flop and probably would fold to a bet on the flop. But there was no flop bet.

The bet on the turn helps. You don't drop anybody with A2XY or A3XY on the turn but you might get rid of a bare 34XY or 345X. But your turn bet probably doesn't get rid of A34X or 234X after the checks on the flop.

Could be somebody has a straight, but I'd guess not. Your turn bet would tend to drop anyone needing a six for a straight (except A34X and 234X, as noted above).

It's a close decision.

I'd resolve it on the basis of what you expect MP to do next. If you really don't expect the betting to get jambed, I think you should call on the river. However, if you think MP will re-raise, then I think you should fold.

Buzz