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#1
07-03-2005, 01:33 PM
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Lottery EV
I was just wondering, what are the odds of winning the lottery? I know the odds change with respect to how many numbers you can choose from, but does anyone know any figures?
On that note, what is the EV of playing the lottery? Again this varies depending on for example the cost of a ticket, and the size of the jackpot, but can anyone do some rough calculations? 
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#2
07-03-2005, 04:05 PM
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Re: Lottery EV
To make it simple, the probability is based upon the number of draws, and the number of possible draws. For 6 numbers drawn from a field of 50, use -
6 5 4 3 2 1 Some small number - * - * - * - * - * - = ----------------- 50 49 48 47 46 45 Some big number Reduce the results for the answer. The expectation is always around -.5 by law. You lose only 50% (if you hit some jackpots, otherwise more). The size of the jackpot, and carryover pools never provide positive expectation -- but sometimes reduce the negative expectation. Even when there is a 120MM jackpot on a game with odds 1:30MM, the number of tickets sold will dilute the value of the prize. And remember, a $100MM prize is actually about $30MM, after a 50% haircut for the annuity and another 40% for the taxman. Fun game, huh? SheetWise
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