Going for a stack, then a chunk of my stack becomes in jeopardy.

[PassiveCaller]

So I've been messing around more with NL, and cutting my teeth with some laggier play at times and here's a hand I found somewhat interesting. Perhaps you all will too or maybe not. Let's disregard the preflop debate since it's pretty obvious, I was slightly tilted at the time and the debate is meaningless.

1-2 Online.

I have ~375, pertainent villian has ~270. He hasn't been out of line but not totally quiet. (i'm working from memory here but the hand is about right)

UTG raises to 10, and we get 2 callers, I call on the button w/59d & we get both blinds along for the ride as well. There hasn't been too many big reraises pre flop. I mention this because in a situation like this i'll see a player's cold calling range slip alittle downards sometimes.

flop: 5c 5s 9d ~60 pot

SB leads for $2, and everyone just calls. In reality here I think I'm mostly giving a free roll to bust me so I think this is bad. In fact more then bad, but again I was tilting.

turn: 6s ~72 pot

SB goes all in for about $55 which means absolutely nothing (could be as low as Ace High here or XX bluff), 2 folds, then Villian moves in the rest of his chips about 260, next guy folds to me. Villian probably realizes that SB could have very little but in this case with this opponent this raise looks legit.

This looks like a huge bet to me.

1) What does villian do this with? (assuming somewhat reasonable not loose aggressive villian)
a) That we beat.
b) That we don't beat.
c) How many combinatorials of both and how likely?
d) Is there a fulcrum in the range of hands that Villian has that makes this an easy call or easy fold? Eg: If Villian would stoop down to XX hand here in his range when do you beat him into the pot.
e) How much does the money in the pot effect this range?


Good luck stacking.

[guaranteedBluff]

Call!

The only two hands that beat you are 99 or 66. I see him making this play with TT-AA, 5x, the straight. I think you're taking this down at least 75% of the time.

[PassiveCaller]

I honestly could be 100% positive with this villian that he does not have an overpair here. He'd reraise a good chunk of the time with a big pair and he wouldn't make such a large reraise all in with one.

75% is optimistic here.

[guaranteedBluff]

[ QUOTE ]
I honestly could be 100% positive with this villian that he does not have an overpair here.

[/ QUOTE ]

well if this is true then I suppose that the only hand you beat is the straight. Maybe you lay this down...? I know I'd never lay it down though, unless you're up against a complete rock.

[PassiveCaller]

Well at the time I played the hand I wasn't doing "much thinking" and I think this resulted in a poor decision making process. That's why I enumerated out the factors which I've gone over and I'm curious what other people think of them here.

I beat a straight, I beat A5s, perhaps 56s. If he goes lower then that in his hand range even K5s (meaning less reasonable) it seems like the whole situation becomes more automatic. There's a decent chunk of change already in the pot already. The question is how many combinations of the hands I beat, & how likely is the play to much up with those. Is there factors that could make the ones we beat or the ones that beat us more likely based upon hand reading.

I looked at the hand more as an exercise since I played it pretty poorly and the pre-flop decision may have been my "best decision" sadly.

All interesting stuff to look at and very key when making a decision on when to lay down a big hand.

[TheRegulat0r]

I call here without blinking.

He wouldnt make this play with 55 or 99, he has no reason to scare you out of the pot when he has the nuts. 66 is the one I might consider, but this play still seems unlikely to me.

It looks to me like he's trying to isolate and get all-in with the short-stack in a big pot. He might be putting the short-stack on a draw.

I don't think this is anywhere near close enough to take the time to the math on.

Call.

[PassiveCaller]

He's isolating with 2 people left to act after him when the initial bet is large enough to get most hands to fold and a min raise would be large enough to get any non-legit hand to fold?

This guy had put his stack in a total of 0 times in hour and made a large bet like that pretty much never. He wasn't great, but reasonable and seemed very reasonable with his assumption of risk given bets and raises.

[jacknine]

What puzzles me more about this hand, is the play the SB made. Bet $2 into a $60 pot and then push the last $55 into a $70 pot when the 6s hits. Just a bad play(er), or more to this move?

[Mr. Curious]

You have got to call here.

If Villian has 99 or 66 here, he would just call because he wants someone with an overpair or a 9 to come along for the ride. I think it is possible to see villian with A5, maybe A9, and trying to cut off the rest of the table from their draws.

You also need to take into account the hand that the SB holds. $2 into a $60 pot is might suspicious, so putting SB on a strong hand (like 99 or 5x) cuts down on the hands that Villian could hold which increase the likelyhood that you are will at least make back your investment from villian.

Note: If villian is tricky, he may push here because he's making anyone who thinks at the table think he doesn't have what he really does.

btw - Your limit play has hindered your ability to play NL and you are obviously not ready to play for big stacks of money. Move down to the .10/.25 NL game till you can handle a $200 push.

[PassiveCaller]

The SB was real bad.