Weak OESD / MP facing 2 cold on turn

silkyslim · #1 08-01-2005, 06:08 AM

UTG+1 is extremely tight pf and very passive. MP1 is completely awful at poker and likes to bluff. What are thoughts on maybe 3-betting flop for a free card and maybe clearing some redraws? Should I continue on the turn?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $1.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero (poster) checks, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, MP2 raises, Hero ??

@bsolute_luck · #2 08-01-2005, 07:22 AM

i would have 3-bet the flop.

easy call on the turn IMO. someone might have a BDFD, but really I'm gonna have to give you full 8 outs for your OESD but 0 outs for your 7 and 5 (based on read of UTG- possible trips, and if he is tight, seriously doubt 87 UTG).

so you're getting immediate 5.75:1, need ~6:1 so you're pretty much break even but assuming MP1 comes along and doubtful of UTG+1 c/r due to passivity but will probably call, you're getting more than enough.

POKhER · #3 08-01-2005, 07:45 AM

Possible outs:
8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] + 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] + 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] + 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Clean outs(assume):
three 3's, three 8's

6outs needing 7:1

Pot odds: 11.25:1 > 5.6:1

I say you can call, This plus implied further down if you hit i'd say your good for one.

Wonder what odds of him boating up are and beating us? guess its 10 outs on turn for river so 3.6:1 against.

In the battle though i might of folded, Would be a bad fold.. just probably a better call.

#4 08-01-2005, 08:37 AM

For the turn - though you get 5.6 to 1 from the pot I doubt that you can call profitably here. For sure your 7 and 5 outs (to two-pair; trips) are no good here, since the 7 puts 4 to a straight and the 5 could easily lose to a higher set (UTG+1 or BB could hold pocket sixes and caldown scared by the board, additionally someone could hold a 5 with a better kicker) and it could lose to a straight (even if no one has a straight on the flop he could easily outdraw you on the river even when you make your set).
Moreover the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] put 3 to a flush.

The same is true for your OESD-outs, I doubt that your 3 outs (for the bottom straight) will win more than 60% of the time when you hit - especially since MP2 coldcalled 2bets on the flop and then raises a blank on the turn.
And even if you win - you will often just win half the pot since you share with anyone holding a 7. Thus you can count 2 outs for the bottom straight at best (moreover the 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] puts 3 to a flush and isnt worth much).
Your 8 outs are stronger since they give you the 2nd nut-straight (someone holding 97 beats you, but thats quite unlikely) but you cant count 4 full outs. You'll often have to share with someone holding a 7 and the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] again puts 3 to a flush. You can maybe expect 2.5 outs here.

Taken together you have about 5 outs (2.5 for the 8, 2 for the 3 and maybe .5 for your 5 for the rare case you win by making trips).
The pot offers you 5.6 to 1, the odds of hitting your draw(and winning or at least sharing) are 8.2 to 1. For making this call profitable you need to collect 3 more BB from a hand that doesnt share with you or beats you when you hit your hand - quite unlikely.

I like your flop play - raising wont do us any good. Its not for value though we get 3 callers (I doubt we get more if BB has to coldcall 3 bets - remember he got a free play from bb he could have anything) you should rather try to keep BB in with hopeless holdings.
Raising wont give us a free card - UTG+1 is an extremely tight and passive player according to your read - such a player will not bet with nothing on a 3-straight board into 5 opponents. Theres a good chance he comes out betting again on the turn.
Moreover MP1 will bluffbet the turn very often because its so scary to anyone and he loves to bluff.
MP2 could be slowplaying here (it doesnt matter if hes doing this correctly or incorrectly - he'll come out betting the turn often if he does).

Concerning cleaning outs - i doubt we can clean many outs here. Someone holding a 5 with a better kicker will have to fold to 2 bets anyway and someone holding a 7 will not fold because of his OESD. The best thing a raise does is making turn play easier (you'll be able to call there even if its 2 bets to you) and it might get in more dead many - but I doubt that its enough to make raising +EV (esp. because someone could cap here).

Duerig · #5 08-01-2005, 09:24 AM

I like to 3 bet the flop and call the turn here.

silkyslim · #6 08-01-2005, 01:05 PM

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I like to 3 bet the flop and call the turn here.

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me too, but I probably wouldn't have had to call 2 cold if I 3-bet. 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on river +14.75 BB! But I'm not results oriented, at least.

benkath1 · #7 08-01-2005, 01:13 PM

hmmm. I was going to say I didn't like cold calling the flop, but I think it is ok. With you implied odds, you should be able to make it up on the river if you fill, or if they are totally bluffing.

On the turn, I'm not sure. I would fear MP1 3 betting if you called the raise here. I'd be inclined to drop it there.

Interesting hand.

silkyslim · #8 08-01-2005, 01:16 PM

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On the turn, I'm not sure. I would fear MP1 3 betting if you called the raise here. I'd be inclined to drop it there.

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Thats why I posted it, I was very scared MP1 would 3-bet, but what rationale was behind it? Why did you think he would?

benkath1 · #9 08-01-2005, 01:27 PM

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On the turn, I'm not sure. I would fear MP1 3 betting if you called the raise here. I'd be inclined to drop it there.

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Thats why I posted it, I was very scared MP1 would 3-bet, but what rationale was behind it? Why did you think he would?

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I guess getting burned by fish has me running scared. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I would think the bluffer might continue to bluff and try and represent a made str8 or 2 pair. It's hard to say. I would definately think you are behind a K and if you 3 bet, he might cap. Then if you missed on the river you just lost 2bb.

Had the bluffer seen many showdowns? Does he cold call much? If he's going to showdown no matter what, I might raise, but if he is apt to fold on the river, I don't think it is worthwhile.

silkyslim · #10 08-01-2005, 01:33 PM

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Had the bluffer seen many showdowns? Does he cold call much? If he's going to showdown no matter what, I might raise, but if he is apt to fold on the river, I don't think it is worthwhile

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He wasnt crazy, most likely wouldn't raise a raiser. He would most likely go to showdown with any piece.