#1
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99 flops set, river gets ugly
Sticking with the MP hands, like to see your thoughts on the turn when the board gets really coordinated. And, how going heads-up changes the dynamic.
(Aside: I was glad to get away from Absolute--cashed my 200% bonus and left. Tables are WAY tight as everyone is bonus whoring). Converted at PokerGeek Absolute Limit Hold'em Ring - $2/$4 Stakes (8 handed) Starting Stacks Seat 1: Big blind ($100) Seat 2: UTG ($107.25) Seat 4: UTG+1 ($98.50) Seat 5: MP (Hero) ($90.75) Seat 6: LP ($14.75) Seat 7: CO ($80.25) Seat 8: Button ($74) Seat 9: Small blind ($66.12) Preflop: Hero is MP with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, poker, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, LP folds, CO folds, Button folds, Small blind folds, Big blind folds, UTG+1 calls Flop: (5.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls Turn: (3.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero calls River: (7.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> UTG+1 bets, Hero calls Final Pot: $37.25 Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">UTG+1 has Jc Qh (Two Pairs, queens and jacks) MP has 9c 9d (Three of a kind, nines) Outcome: Hero wins $37.25 </font> |
#2
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Re: 99 flops set, river gets ugly
*grunch*
Preflop / Flop - good Turn - yuck; hate the donk bet here but I think you have to cal down. Even if you are behind you have 11 outs (unless vilain holds JJ which he sure has not acted like) to quads or a full house. River - If villain was on a draw this card completes alot of stright draws and the flush draw. I'd say your chance of still being ahead is 25% or less; with 7.75BB in the pot you have odds to call even if your chance of winning is as low as 12%. . . call. |
#3
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Re: 99 flops set, river gets ugly
Looks ordinary against an unknown. Reads would change the dynamic more than being HU.
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#4
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Re: 99 flops set, river gets ugly
[ QUOTE ]
*grunch* Preflop / Flop - good Turn - yuck; hate the donk bet here but I think you have to cal down. Even if you are behind you have 11 outs (unless vilain holds JJ which he sure has not acted like) to quads or a full house. River - If villain was on a draw this card completes alot of stright draws and the flush draw. I'd say your chance of still being ahead is 25% or less; with 7.75BB in the pot you have odds to call even if your chance of winning is as low as 12%. . . call. [/ QUOTE ] That's 10 outs to the boat or quads on the turn, and the second club doesn't complete any flush draws, but other than that your post is pretty good. |
#5
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Re: 99 flops set, river gets ugly
So, on the turn we are giving villain automatic credit for KQ. We have a set, I think we have to at least consider a raise here.
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#6
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Re: 99 flops set, river gets ugly
[ QUOTE ]
So, on the turn we are giving villain automatic credit for KQ. We have a set, I think we have to at least consider a raise here. [/ QUOTE ] I'd consider it for about a second. The c/r on the turn at these limits means "you'd better be close to the nuts, 'cuz I am." UNLESS you have a read on the Villan that he'll go nutbag with TP, two-pair or some such. |
#7
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Re: 99 flops set, river gets ugly
Played well by villian and Hero.
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