overthinking or FPS for you trendy assholes

[sublime]

30/60 full

good table game. players can get retarded preflop, buts its usually the same ones over and over. anyways:

3 folds to unknown who limps, 2 more folds to a guy who i have played with before and doesnt stick out to me. in other words, hes not a LAG or a TAG or mega fish. he limps and i raise on the button with KK. the blinds fold and

3 of use see a flop for 3.7 BB's

894r

check, check, i bet. unknown calls, run of mill guys raise, i 3-bet, limper folds, ROM calls.

2 for 7.2

now i feel like the guy has JT here. of course he could have A9 or 67 or J9 or 98, but i feel like he has JT.

turn is a 7

he checks. now 99.9% of the time i bet, and i am not saying i didn't bet this time. but how bad is checking? you can see a showdown for 1 bet against JT and get a free card against the multitude of two pair hands. of course this board sucks for giving free cards, which is why we usually bet. however, when check raised we (I) almost always call the river bet unimproved.

EDIT: to add that, because i feel the guy has JT doesnt make it so of course. i dont give as much credit to my feelings on the turn as i do on the river.

[billyjex]

Fancy
Play
Syndrome

He will have other crap than JT here enough to bet bet bet.

[jph0424]

I don't think checking KK on this board is a good idea. Free cards here are very bad and you are going to hate life if a T or 6 hits the river.

[Surfbullet]

Ugh. I crunched a bunch of #s in excel but forgot to include the cost of being c/r'd and paying off. I have to go pick up my brother but I'll do more when I get back.

It looks like checking through isn't a bad plan, from a rough range of hands.

Surf

[ALL1N]

It depends on how strong your read is, and only you can answer that. I wouldn't class it as FPS though, more as following through on a read.

[Surfbullet]

Okay I took the time to finish crunching the numbers. Here are my assumptions, I'd appreciate it if others checked their veracity - I will alter them as we see fit:

Opponents possible holdings:

Hands we beat:
A9 (12 combinations)
A8 (12 combinations)
T9 (12)
J9s(3)
Q9s(3)

Total: 42 combinations. Average outs against us: 7.57

Hands we are behind:
JT (16 combinations)
89 (9)
97 (9)
44 (3)

Total: 37 combinations. Average outs: 3.89

Given these figures we expect to be ahead 53% of the time on the turn.

A few assumptions:
-1 bet goes in on the river regardless of the line we choose.
-We're not folding regardless of the action
-Villain is c/r'ing us for value. 85% of the time he has a better hand. 15% he has a worse hand.

Given these assumptions: If villain checkraises us >28% of the time (where 85% of those c/r's are better hands and 15% are worse hands) betting is -EV compared to checking through.

I'll modify the calculations as we debate my assumptions a bit. Initially, this appears to mean that a check through is the best play against most reasonably aggressive opponents.

Surf

[tansoku]

[ QUOTE ]


Given these figures we expect to be ahead 53% of the time on the turn.



[/ QUOTE ]

Stove says you're close, don't know how the actual suits and cards would affect it's calcs. Either way it's basically a coin flip.
Board: 8d 9s 4h 7c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.3314 % 48.33% 00.00% { KK }
Hand 2: 51.6686 % 51.67% 00.00% { 44, A9s-A8s, Q9s, J9s+, T9s, 97s+, A9o-A8o, JTo, T9o, 97o+ }

[Drontier]

I don't know why you put him on specifically JT. Even with reads, I can't really see narrowing villain to this specific of a hand. If you think this card substantially helped him, you can bet/call and fold to the river if the board doesn't pair. I hate checking here.

Why post the hand? You think he has JT majority of the time, check the turn, call the river and move on.

[ggbman]

This is the type of hand that is read dependant. Generally, a bet is in order here because you are still ahead of most of the hands in his range, and you could be giving a free card on a very dangerous board. I am a firm believer that you can have a read strong enough to contradict what is normally a correct play, and if you think that one specific hand is that likely in this case, its ok to check. That said, i think betting is usually best. These are the situations where its difficult to not be results oriented after the action goes down, but you really have to try to be.

Gabe