river value bet checkup

[tyler_cracker]

Table is loose passive and generally gives me an erection.

Hero has JJ in CO. Couple limpers, Hero RAISES, everyone calls.

Flop (12 SB): Q 5 2 rainbow (6 players)

Checks to me, Hero BETS, everyone calls.

Turn (9 BB): 3 (6 players)

Checks to me, Hero BETS, 1 fold, everyone else calls.

River (13 BB): K (5 players)

Checks to me, Hero...? (Button remains to act behind us)


Value bet? Why or why not? If so, what's your plan if Button raises? if someone check/raises?

[ZenMusician]

Hero Checky...your hand has been outdrawn too often.
There are no draws on the flop that didn't get there on
the turn (more or less). You are facing a weak Q at least.

If you bet you have to face:

...what's your plan if Button raises? if someone check/raises

I don't like overcalling if Puck bets either...

-ZEN

[tyler_cracker]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like overcalling if Puck bets either...

[/ QUOTE ]

Alpha Force is at my table? Sweet!

(or, if you prefer

The cast of A Midsummer Night's Dream is at my table? Sweet!!

[ZenMusician]

...or that raunchy dude from the MTV real world series?

Oh......and check call!

-ZEN

I say check and evaluate action behind. Probably call for just 1 bet.

[Redd]

Congrats, tyler; you started one of a rare group (I could count them on both hands) of threads where I think the river is not a value-bet. IMO with this many people there's too good of a chance that someone has you beat, most likely from the flop. I check and reevaluate.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Congrats, tyler; you started one of a rare group (I could count them on both hands) of threads where I think the river is not a value-bet. IMO with this many people there's too good of a chance that someone has you beat, most likely from the flop. I check and reevaluate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. I was going to say I'd call this a place for a bet/fold. Bet on the longshot chance that you can make the weak queen fold (I guess that makes in not a value bet, tho, so you're right, Redd). Fold because if you get raised anywhere it's at least a queen.

[benkath1]

I can't do it. Having that Q on the board was scary enough with that many callers. I check call this.

[Redd]

I dunno dude - how often do you suspect someone folds a queen here? I'd say <1% of the time.

[tyler_cracker]

[ QUOTE ]
Congrats, tyler; you started one of a rare group (I could count them on both hands) of threads where I think the river is not a value-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, i thought it might make a reasonable exercise for that reason.

Except now bozlax is advocating bet/fold. Curiouser and curiouser.