3bet this turn on draw?

veganmav · #1 10-06-2005, 10:41 AM

CO is a good tight player. He'splays and beats the 15/30 too. He is 16/9/1.3.
So he's not too agressive post flop, but still wins.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO caps, Hero calls, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (18 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, MP2 calls, CO 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (17 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, MP2 calls, CO raises, Hero calls, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

So I think the flop cap is fine, everyone agree?
On the turn how does 3betting look? I didn't like it.
The CO probably has a high PP, so I could have lots of outs if he has something like QQ. Although mathematically speaking it's probably more likely that CO has QQ since I have one A and one K, in terms of action so far, he has played it more like AA, showing aggression every time possible. Anyway is anyone 3betting this turn? and why?

TaintedRogue · #2 10-06-2005, 10:50 AM

I'm not betting the turn, as there are diamonds that bring a straight to the board and he just may have AA/KK, reducing your outs further.

TaintedRogue · #3 10-06-2005, 10:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
........ as there are diamonds that bring a straight to the board............

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I broke my #1 Rule: Don't post on 2+2 after having smoked a joint.

DeeJ · #4 10-06-2005, 10:57 AM

you talk a lot about CO but what about UTG and MP2??
They've called along all the way and may have a set which if the board pairs with the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] can sink you. In short, unless you river the nut flush you're almost certainly dead. So I'd be trying to see the river as cheaply as possible (check-calling the turn). The rest is fine. I doubt you have any K or A outs.

stigmata · #5 10-06-2005, 11:00 AM

The flop cap is fine, pot equity and all. On the turn I would just check-call, too likely to get raised, your pot equity has dropped, your never folding out a better hand. Just play it straightfoward.

veganmav · #6 10-06-2005, 11:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
you talk a lot about CO but what about UTG and MP2??
They've called along all the way and may have a set which if the board pairs with the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] can sink you. In short, unless you river the nut flush you're almost certainly dead. So I'd be trying to see the river as cheaply as possible (check-calling the turn). The rest is fine. I doubt you have any K or A outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your right about the other players. Anyway MP2 is loose passive. Will call down with any pair hoping to be good or something. MP1 has shown down small PP many times and flopped bottom pair etc.

UTG has VPIP of 52 after 120 hands. He bets if he has TP or better, and gets out pretty soon if he misses. Pretty straight loose play.

I don't see reason to give anyone credit for a set. Some kind of two pair maybe, but no set yet. UTG 2bet the flop so what? CO probably has a high pocket pair. I think almost all of my flush outs are good. Furthermore I probably don't have many Top Pair outs, but it is possible that my outs to A or K are worth 1 or 2 outs.

veganmav · #7 10-06-2005, 11:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
........ as there are diamonds that bring a straight to the board............

[/ QUOTE ]

I broke my #1 Rule: Don't post on 2+2 after having smoked a joint.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, lol, I was sitting there trying to figure out what the hec you meant. I thought maybe you meant I should slow down cus a 6d might fall and that would make the possibility of a straight flush lol. Anyway yeah, flush beats a straight man. (btw pass the doobie)

ihardlyknowher · #8 10-06-2005, 01:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
CO is a good tight player. He'splays and beats the 15/30 too. He is 16/9/1.3.
So he's not too agressive post flop, but still wins.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO caps, Hero calls, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (18 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, MP2 calls, CO 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (17 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, MP2 calls, CO raises, Hero calls, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

So I think the flop cap is fine, everyone agree?
On the turn how does 3betting look? I didn't like it.
The CO probably has a high PP, so I could have lots of outs if he has something like QQ. Although mathematically speaking it's probably more likely that CO has QQ since I have one A and one K, in terms of action so far, he has played it more like AA, showing aggression every time possible. Anyway is anyone 3betting this turn? and why?

[/ QUOTE ]

On the turn, I think a case could be made for raising to clean up your A & K outs because the pot is so big But if UTG or MP2 holds A5 or something like that, they are getting proper odds to call 2 more anyway. So, I vote for calling.

amulet · #9 10-06-2005, 02:13 PM

on the turn i can't see betting out, 2 of the 3 players just called 2 bets cold, and the other keeps rasing. you do not have positive equity by leading out here. know they will call, and probably raise. you want to see the river cheaply. sure co could have qq, but even with you having ak, he can still have aa or kk. and your not giving the 2 others any credit. even awful players flop sets. it is also possible that one of them has 2 of your diamonds. all unlikely, but some of it is maybe true. the board pairing would not be good. i agree with you, the turn is overplayed.

mc1023 · #10 10-06-2005, 03:42 PM

flop is fine

but with the pot so big on the turn and that many players I would be more inclined to check the turn, only because you may have much less outs than you think you do.

for example, your pair outs may be no good or there is a smaller diamond draw out there drying your outs.

and no way in hell anyone is folding the turn, and I would hate to see it come back to me for 3 BB.