Running bad or playing bad? Pokertracker stats. . .

[7ontheline]

Long time lurker, first time posting. I know that everyone here is up to their eyeballs in posts about Pokertracker stats, but I searched through old posts and couldn't find an exact answer to my question.

Anyway. . .what kind of statistics do people examine in Pokertracker to determine if they are simply running unlucky during a downswing or if there is a more serious problem in their game? I play $3/6 on Party and am pretty happy with most of my basic stats (VPIP ~18-19, PFR ~8.7, Total aggression ~2.3 not counting preflop). I went through about a -150 BB downswing or so over the course of approximately 6K hands. What other stats do people usually study to see if there is a glaring error in their game? My Won $ when seeing flop was about 30% over this time - I have read that it should be 33% or so. Is this true?

I did feel that my play was probably not as good as it could have been during this time, but I also felt like luck was against me too. I kept missing draws, when I had overcards they would pair, when I had pairs there would be overcards, my sets would get cracked by straights, I would lose to hands that I dominated preflop, etc. Is there a good way to look on Pokertracker to see if my bad-luck suspicions are true or if instead I'm just not as good as I think I am? Thanks in advance.

[shadow29]

Sample size insufficient. Come back in 4k more hands.

[7ontheline]

I know the sample size is insufficient and well within the range of variance - I'm wondering what numbers people like to look at when they are reviewing their play. I'm already back on a winning trend now, and I suspect it was just a bad run. I see a lot of posts telling people to use PT to make sure they are playing well; are you all simply looking at hand histories, or are there specific stats you all look at? I paid $55 for pokertracker, and it has been well worth it - I'm trying to make it even more useful and I would like tips.

[hypermegachi]

i'd like to know how to use PT to find leaks in your game as well...so far all i've done is just look at my biggest losing hands and see where i went wrong. but mostly it's just sets running into bigger sets, or flush but rivered a fullhouse stuff like that.

i probably need to start checking out all the marginal hands. that's where all the money is made, how marginal hands are played.

[helpmeout]

The biggest reason why most people have bad runs is poor table selection.

Your VPIP might be a bit high, I found $3/$6 was very TAGish and had to fold a lot of multiway hands and other marginal hands.

Just make sure you have a significant advantage over the players you play against at the table.

Posting some hands in the small stakes forum might help you a bit.

[evain]

Good question on win % when you see the flop. My first 5000 hands on pokertracker have me at 30.7% and I was wondering if that was low. I am down 20BB in that 5000 hand period after being up 2000BB in the previous 45,000 hands pre pokertracker. (A lot of this was at .25-.50 and .5-1. My play seems fine but the only reason I can think for playing the right cards is not having them stand up. Which equals a low win rate when seeing the flop with good cards. Right?

I think if you could achieve 33% win rate that's 10% more than 30% and that's a lot of extra pots.