splash pot

[brick]

At 2am we have a splash pot. one table. one rack. one heck of a pot.

Here is what we know. They will add $100 to the pot. It will be capped 7-8 ways preflop and on the flop.
It averages 2 bets on the turn and river.

Given the $100 extra at what limit would you actually fold a hand pre-flop?

Would you fold 27o at a 3-6 table?
4-8?
6-12?

Please explain using math and relevent assumptions.

[Grisgra]

Let's say 8 others are seeing the flop. And it's capped preflop. 3-6 game.

$100 added, that's about 17 big bets. You have to put in two big bets ($12) to see a flop, along with eight others.

So after preflop raising, there's 33 big bets in there that aren't yours (17 added, 2 each from the eight others) . . .

Do you have 33:2, or 16.5:1 odds with 72o against 8 random hands? I don't think you do. Not sure about the exact figures, but I think 72o against eight random hands is running about 5% if you go to the *river*, meaning you'd need 19:1 to make this worthwhile. You don't have raw odds, and I don't think you have implied odds given how crappy and vulnerable your hand is.

[Ianco15]

With $100 in the pot preflop before any action you are getting odds to play any hand including 7-2o no matter what the action is to you. If it comes capped to you preflop before you have put any money in the pot you are still getting the odds to play any hand.

At 3/6, $100 is equal to over 33sbs (over 16bbs) so if it comes capped to you preflop you are getting at least 42-4 = 10.5-1 odds to call [raise (2sbs) + reraise (3 sbs) + cap (4 sbs) + rack (33 sbs) = 42 sbs]. These odds will often be much higher (if more people have entered the pot) and do not include the blinds which are often taken as rake at 3/6. You have to call 4 sbs with 42 already in the pot. With these odds (at least 10.5-1), always see a flop with a rack in the middle at 3/6.

[Freakin]

What are you hoping to hit when you see the flop? I think you have to calculate the odds of flopping two-pair or better and go from there.

Freakin

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
With $100 in the pot preflop before any action you are getting odds to play any hand including 7-2o no matter what the action is to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Prove it.

[brick]

I agree that 72o would not show a long term profit.

You're right that 72o wins about 5% of the time versus 8 other hands.
Your portion of the $100 is only $5.
The preflop action would cost you about $6 per hand not considering the added rack.
-$12 * .95 + 108 *.05 = -6

+5 from the added rack, -6 from the preflop action, EV = -$1.

72o doesn't strike me as an implied odds type of hand that could make up the difference post flop. It would be very difficult to play well post-flop because you never know where you're at.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
It will be capped 7-8 ways preflop and on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Just for clearification, this means that evryone else's hand will be random if I understand correctly. If that's true then here's some quick pokerstoving:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 06.1905 % [ 00.05 00.01 ] { 72o }
Hand 2: 13.3992 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 3: 13.5822 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 4: 13.5714 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 5: 13.0146 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 6: 13.5669 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 7: 13.3220 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 8: 13.3531 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }
</pre><hr />

Without going through the math I would have to think that an extra 16.6 BB will make up for this.

[Ianco15]

I stand corrected. While it would seem odd to fold preflop with an added rack in the pot, 72o would not be profitable.

[brick]

Hey Evan,
PokerStove is exactly how can up with the 5% number for 72o against 8 other random hands.
When I do the math I come to the conclusion that 16BB doesn't make up for that difference.