is this thinking ahead or just miscalculation?

[wutevahung]

so lets say i have a3 suited in a ring game, someone raised in front of me and i called, flop me 1 over card flush draw, the opponent bets, i raise, he goes all in, so i put him on an over pair, pretty reasonable right?

so lets count the outs
9 outs form flushdraw + 3 outs for the ace + runner runner 3 so 1 out= 13 outs

so since i called his raise, and i raised him, lets say 1/4 of my stack is gone and if i put him on an over pair, this might just be a coin flip. (or close to a coin flip) so i have to call anyway, but i am curious if what i m thinking is right

since its a ring game, its very doubtful that no one else has been dealt my ace/flush outs, so my actual outs cant be 13, so is it right to assume couple of my outs r gone, say lets 13-2= 11 and make my judgement on 11 since i should always be ready for the worst case?

or you can say you even picked up a tell from someone preflop who folded that he had an ace. lets say the BB was very hestitate if he should call the raise and he said something like "my kickers no good probably" and he folds, so you can almost assume that he has AT or AJ or something like that, so now you can make it 11-1=10

it would be right to call his all in with 13 outs, but 10 outs? it might be -ev to call (i didnt calculate it, just an assumption)

so should i sometimes ASSUME some of my outs are gone? since some of my outs r PROBABLY gone and since the opponent puts me all in, so i have no fold equility on him, if he just reraises me then i can go all in to try to make him fold but this is not the case

i think there is something wrong with my thinking, can anyone help me with it?

anyway any help would be appreciated [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[pudley4]

1 - you can't subtract any of your flush outs (or aces) unless you know they are gone (e.g. you saw the cards as they were folded). You can't just assume that exzactly 2 of your outs are gone and then calculate, because you'll then have to assume that 14 of your "non-outs" are gone too (in a 10-handed game, these are the other 14 cards that are folded). You don't know, so you don't assume.

2 - You can avoid this whole problem by not calling a raise with A3s preflop.

[citizenkn]

[ QUOTE ]
so lets say i have a3 suited in a ring game, someone raised in front of me and i called...

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the main part you need to rethink.....cold calling a raise with a weak suited ace is no good....

[OrangeKing]

Here's another way of looking at the problem of why you can't just assume people have some of your outs, and immediately discounting them.

Before you start discounting, you would have assumed you have the 9 cards to make your flush, the 3 aces, and that runner-runner which is not even worth an out so we won't count it. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] In all, you have about 12 outs out of 45 unknown cards - 26.6% of the cards are outs. You'd like to say that if you can assume 4 of those outs were dealt, you'd only have 8 outs out of 41 cards instead (19.5% of the cards).

But you can't do that, because if there were 16 cards dealt to the other 8 players, and you assume exactly four of them were your outs, you also have to assume that the other 12 cards weren't your outs, and calculate that too. So now you have 8 outs out of 29 cards, or 27.6% of the cards helping you.

Of course, all of this information is impossible to obtain unless you can see everyone else's cards, which is why we don't try to guess at such things at the table. An unknown cards is an unknown card - don't try to guess how many of your outs were dealt.

[AaronBrown]

Let's start with the principle. Normally you compute outs based only on cards you have seen. After the flop you've seen 5 cards, 47 are unseen. In a ten-handed game, 18 of those 47 are in other players' hands (including folded hands). One is the burn card, but you have absolutely no information about it, so it doesn't matter.

Suppose you have one Ace in your hand, and there are none on the board. Your chance of getting one on the turn is usually computed as 3/47 (three outs divided by 47 unseen cards). If you knew for sure there was, say, exactly one Ace among the opponents' hands, the fraction would instead be 2/29 (two remaining Aces among the 29 cards left in the deck). In your computation, you subtracted from the numerator, but not the denominator. You can't do that.

If you have information but not certainty, you can use it to improve your calculation. For example, suppose everyone folded to you in the small blind, you called, and the big blind did not raise. Your game is loose enough that anyone with an Ace at least calls preflop, and given the table weakness the big blind would normally raise in that situation even with A2. But you're not sure. Someone in early position might have folded Ace-small unsuited. The big blind may hold Ace-Ace and be slowplaying.

If you're right that no one has an Ace, the correct chance is 3/29. Without any information it's 3/47. You might decide to use, say, 3/33. There are formal ways to do this, but guessing somewhere in between is good enough for Poker. You just don't have the kind of precise information about other players that allows you to get fancy with the mathematics. But what is important is to consider both the numerator and denominator. Don't adjust only the number of outs, but also the number of cards remaining.

In your example, I don't think you have much useful information. Your chance of getting an Ace is probably increased slightly by the knowledge no one else called, maybe 3/40 instead of 3/45 (given your assumption about your opponent's hand, note that I subtracted his cards from the denominator to get 45). However, you have no useful information about suits. People dropped preflop, they didn't know about the flush possibility. Also, a three flush doesn't get people excited, all nine of your flush outs could have been in different opponents' hands without any of them wanting to call even after seeing the flop.