AA OOP; rip me a new one

Ghazban · #1 08-14-2005, 03:09 PM

Only about an orbit's worth of hands with villain but he's seen about half the flops. He has not been particularly aggressive at any point though he has taken down 2 pots by betting when checked to last to act.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 Hero (9 handed) converter

Button ($129.90)
SB ($315.50)
Hero ($200)
UTG ($367.65)
UTG+1 ($300.65)
MP1 ($206.60)
MP2 ($198)
MP3 ($226.50)
CO ($268.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
5 folds, CO calls $2, 1 fold, SB (poster) completes, Hero raises to $8, CO calls $8, SB folds.

Flop: ($22) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $18, CO raises to $36, Hero calls $18.

I think I may be ahead here if he has something like a pair+straight and/or flush draw or I could be way behind if he's flopped a set or slightly less way behind if he's got two pair (66,76,87,98,T9,TT,77,88,99 are all possible as is something like AsTs). A straight is also possible but my unexplainable read is that he doesn't have one.

Turn: ($94) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $50, Hero calls $50.

For all intents and purposes, this turn is a brick. There was a fairly long pause before he bet and I felt I still had a pretty decent chance of being ahead.

River: ($194) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $104, Hero calls $104 (All-In).

Another brick on the river. I check planning on calling all-in feeling pretty good about having counterfeited any two pair he might have flopped. I think more worse hands bet than call hence the check.

amoeba · #2 08-14-2005, 03:15 PM

and people say the minraise sucks.

isn't your standard line here call the flop minraise, lead the turn for 1/2 pot, fold to any further aggression? at least thats been my standard.

on the river he has to see the counterfeit and he can't convince you that he has a K so I think he has 2 pair beat.

Rosie5 · #3 08-14-2005, 03:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
on the river he has to see the counterfeit and he can't convince you that he has a K so I think he has 2 pair beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

villian could easily think that hero's check means he won't call the all in and doesn't want to check it down.

seems a little agressive for villian to push this river after miniraising the flop and betting less than the pot on the turn. Then again his river push can mean he figures he has his fish on the line after you called flop+turn.

I won't say anything else further on the matter except that you're in a tough spot.

amoeba · #4 08-14-2005, 03:42 PM

yeah river is definitely tough. this is the danger regarding flop minraises.

notice how turn bet was only 1/2 pot and river bet was only 1/2 pot but it put hero allin.

the pot inflating powers of the flop minraise is just amazing.

is villain capable of this river move with a missed draw?

Ghazban · #5 08-14-2005, 03:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
is villain capable of this river move with a missed draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty tough to say after 10 hands.

#6 08-14-2005, 04:28 PM

I like the idea of folding to the miniraise. This is just about as bad a flop for aces as you can get. He's got a straight, set, two pair, or flush draw. There are just too many things to be worried about. You may have the best hand, but there's no way to feel confident in that. And you're OOP. If he's bluffing, he's bluffing, but this is a real marginal situation that I don't want to be in. Fold and wait for a better spot. Do you really want to risk your whole stack here?

Malachii · #7 08-14-2005, 04:37 PM

I wonder what he's open limping with from the cutoff. That's a weird play...

This is really a tough one. If we lead the turn for $50 as Amoeba suggests and get called, what do we do on the river when there's 200$ in the pot and 100$ left in the stack? Block bet and fold to a raise, getting ~7:1 on our money? Check and call no matter what?

Would anyone consider folding to the minraise? I realize that sounds extremely weak tight, but my thinking is that OOP, if he has us beat we're probably going to have to get our whole stack, and I'm not sure if this is a hand you want to get all your money in with.

If you're going to continue past the minraise, I think it's call minraise -> lead turn for 1/2 pot -> check/call river no matter how much he bets to try and induce a bluff. I hate it though.

Ghazban · #8 08-14-2005, 04:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like the idea of folding to the miniraise. This is just about as bad a flop for aces as you can get. He's got a straight, set, two pair, or flush draw. There are just too many things to be worried about. You may have the best hand, but there's no way to feel confident in that. And you're OOP. If he's bluffing, he's bluffing, but this is a real marginal situation that I don't want to be in. Fold and wait for a better spot. Do you really want to risk your whole stack here?

[/ QUOTE ]

"Waiting for a better spot" is meaningless in a cash game (unless its capped and several players have significantly more than the maximum buyin). I want to risk my whole stack any time its +EV to do so.

#9 08-14-2005, 04:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like the idea of folding to the miniraise. This is just about as bad a flop for aces as you can get. He's got a straight, set, two pair, or flush draw. There are just too many things to be worried about. You may have the best hand, but there's no way to feel confident in that. And you're OOP. If he's bluffing, he's bluffing, but this is a real marginal situation that I don't want to be in. Fold and wait for a better spot. Do you really want to risk your whole stack here?

[/ QUOTE ]

"Waiting for a better spot" is meaningless in a cash game (unless its capped and several players have significantly more than the maximum buyin). I want to risk my whole stack any time its +EV to do so.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough. I was semantically not clear. I think this is probably neutral EV at best. I would fold and wait until I'm in a +EV situation.

#10 08-14-2005, 04:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I wonder what he's open limping with from the cutoff. That's a weird play...

This is really a tough one. If we lead the turn for $50 as Amoeba suggests and get called, what do we do on the river when there's 200$ in the pot and 100$ left in the stack? Block bet and fold to a raise, getting ~7:1 on our money? Check and call no matter what?

Would anyone consider folding to the minraise? I realize that sounds extremely weak tight, but my thinking is that OOP, if he has us beat we're probably going to have to get our whole stack, and I'm not sure if this is a hand you want to get all your money in with.

If you're going to continue past the minraise, I think it's call minraise -> lead turn for 1/2 pot -> check/call river no matter how much he bets to try and induce a bluff. I hate it though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. There is just no good answer here. Normally when you're in a situation when all the options sound bad it is at best neutral EV. Just fold and let the next hand be dealt. you'll have pocket aces again.

And I am one who advocates putting all your money in with "just one pair" if you think you have it. But this is not one of those times.