BDFD - It's about MilesDyson

As you can see from my other posts I'm not afraid to look stupid. That being said, this post is resonding to a post that Miles made in one of my stupid hands that got me thinking.


DYSON said.
[ QUOTE ]

as far as implied odds go - you can't really count for much when you have to call another bet on the turn just to finish your draw by the river mate!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

He was referring to something I said -
[ QUOTE ]
I thought I had good implied odds on the BDFD.

[/ QUOTE ]

What he said is most definitely true, but in this case I think it swings in the other direction slightly.

It's quite obvious I don't know what I'm talking about BUT this was my thinking.

I expected all 4 LPP villians on the flop to go to the river.

I'M FOLDING if I don't pick up the draw (Villian gets no more money).

There is roughly a 1\4 chance I pick up my FD on the turn.

If I pick up the flush draw on the turn, I'm getting only slightly less than even money on my turn call (-.05BB)

BUT I get payed off BIG TIME. In the hand, I had relative position on the aggressor and therefore can raise on the river when I hit (4-8BB).

I pay .5BB times 4. 3 misses for every one hit (2BB) on the flop for the chance at my flush.
AND.05BB on the turn.
I pay 2.05BB for a ~1/4 chance at 4-8BB.

This is -EV as Miles said. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

BUT
This is assuming that my flop call is 100% negative EV which it is not.
I have an overcard and BDSD.

So now the cost on the flop drops dramatically. Now I only pay ~.3BB on the flop. Times 4, 3 misses one hit = 1.2BB.

I now pay 1.25BB for a 1\4 chance at 4-8BB. ~ neutral EV.

This is much better than ditching my (however small)equity in a large pot.

<font color="red">Is this wrong? </font>

It seems it would be -EV not to call.


After writing all this out, I've realised already some of the innaccuracies in my calculations. For instance, it's not a 1\4 chance its 10\47 or 9\46. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

I still think it bares some consideration.

If you are faced with folding a 10% equity in a large pot it may be the lesser of two evils to peel.

Like splitting 8's against a T in Blackjack.

I'm learning and I make no excuses for thinking.

Comments always appreciated. Flame away.

[Yerma]

You forgot to count some very important possibilities. What if you pick up a draw on the turn, but have to call more than one bet? What if you complete the draw on the river, and you attempt to use your great relative position to check-raise and it gets checked through? What if you pick up a draw on the turn, the preflop raiser bets and you are the only caller?

All in all, your flop call was only somewhat -EV. Unfortunately, you're going to pick up quite a few running draws in your hands. If you blow all of them this way, you're spewing a lot of chips.

Here's a guideline that I like in these spots. Wait until you're getting more than 15:1 to make that crazy looking call.