What are the odds--or am I whining?

DougBrennan · #1 10-26-2003, 07:38 AM

Twice in the same tournament, within the space of 25 hands, this happened:

I hold AA, opponent bets all-in into me, I call, opponent shows
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and hits the flush to beat me. Ok, it's a rebuy, I suck it up and continue.

I hold KK, opponent bets all-in into me, I call, opponent shows
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and hits the flush to beat me.

Is this a real long-shot combo, or am I whining?

ramjam · #2 10-26-2003, 07:48 AM

Any particular extended combination of hands is a long shot.

Your AA was about a 7/1 favourite. Your KK was about a 2/1 favourite. I guess it's pretty unlucky to lose both (over 20/1 against).

DougBrennan · #3 10-26-2003, 08:07 AM

Actually, it wasn't so much my AA KK I was asking about as it was the double
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hitting the flush both times.

And in truth, I know that an infinite number of monkeys playing an infinite number of poker hands ...

Trefo · #4 10-26-2003, 10:57 AM

If you think you'll never lose 2 hands in a row that your a favorite on then your playing the wrong game. It's a combo of luck and skill and you better realize that luck factor is involved in the game. It's a bad beat now move on.

judds · #5 10-26-2003, 11:57 AM

Two suited cards will make a flush 6.5% of the time. Two consecutive occurances are obtained by .065 x .065 = 0.004225. But like flipping coins the second time you play the hand the chances are that two suited cards will make a flush are the same 6.5% of the time. The fact that the last time it came up tails has no influence on the second time. 25% of the time the heads or tails will occur twice in a row. Those are the odds and the answer to your question is YES, you are whinning

chesspain · #6 10-26-2003, 12:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
And in truth, I know that an infinite number of monkeys playing an infinite number of poker hands ...

[/ QUOTE ]

...will win an infinate amount of money playing on Party LL games [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Louie Landale · #7 10-27-2003, 02:26 PM

Are you asking:

[1] What's the chances in the NEXT 25 hands I'll have AA and KK vrs AKs and lose both hands?

[2] What's the chances that in the NEXT 25 hands someone will lose with AA and someone will lose to KK both against AKs?

[3] What's the chances that, in any 25 consecutive hands in all my tournament experience, that ...

[4] What's the chances that I'll take 2 big beats to go bust in my next tournament?

[5] What's the chances the winner of the tournament got real lucky vis-a-vis his inferior starting hands?

[6] What's the chances I'll take two improbably losses in a tournament?

[7] What's the chances I'll see something real freaky twice.

Lets make a dart board with 1 million holes. Lets throw a dart and it hits hole #566,701. Wow! that's a one in a million chance! Freaky.

- Louie

DougBrennan · #8 10-27-2003, 03:26 PM

My hands are raised in surrender. I think I thought it was interesting that I had two bad beats to the same hand in about 15 minutes, but clearly I was the only one even faintly bemused. So with head bowed I will trudge home, vowing to learn how to hit the curve ball.

andyfox · #9 10-27-2003, 05:16 PM

You'll lose with pocket aces to A-Ks 11.51% of the time. And you'll lose with pocket kings to A-Ks 33.69% of the time. So you'll lose both times a little bit less than 4% of the time when you and your opponent have those hands.

And, yes, with all due respect, you're whining.

trillig · #10 10-29-2003, 08:28 AM

Not that unusual, 25 hand gap.... not far enough apart for me. 8)

I played one hour at a 2-4 table Texas Hold'em, my first time....

In that span:
AA cracked
AA won
AK cracked
KK cracked
KK cracked
QQ cracked
52o WINNER!

I wish I was lying... not a good intro to the 2/4 world at all.
$90 was gone in one hour, and I left thinking I hadn't really played poorly.

Next time:

Only put in $60, lost it in one hour... similar cards, I am patient at the table and once again, I think I won all of one hand in that hour and if I recall it was a tie with almost nothing in the pot.
Again I left thinking, I didn't play poorly...

STUFF happens... I have gottten more than my fair share in this life, waiting for my insanely lucky day.

Also, my sampling is short, but I have yet to return to that same casino to play poker...

The next time out at another casino, I walked away a small victor after 4 hours.

-t