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#1
07-13-2005, 09:44 PM
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QTs with discussion.
Reads:
MP is 41/13/.6 over 170 hands. CO is 14/10/1.3 over 340 hands. BB is 70/45/.8 over 100 hands. [/ QUOTE ] CO posts big blind [$20]. ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to Jeff [ Tc Qc ] 3 folds. Jeff raises [$40]. MP calls [$40]. CO raises [$40]. 2 folds. BB raises [$60]. Jeff calls [$40]. MP calls [$40]. CO calls [$20]. ** Dealing Flop ** [ 6d, 7c, 9s ] BB bets [$20]. 17.5 bets in the pot. What is my plan? [/ QUOTE ] Sthief09's Thoughts: [ QUOTE ] I'd usually fold to the preflop cap unless the 3-bettor or capper is raising light. I think the flop is interesting. you're getting around 15-1, so there's no question you're staying in the pot. there's a chance it gets raised behind you, you have very iffy overcards, and the pot is huge, so I think this might be one of those rare times where you could raise to clean up outs. KQ, QJ, and AQ all have an awful hard time calling a flop raise here, and it's a major coup if you can clean up that Q. sometimes you get 3-bet and sometimes you would've only had to pay 1 bet, but I think it's worth the additional investment. there's also a chance a tight player will fold a T here, which is an even bigger plus than if someone folds a Q. [/ QUOTE ] My Thoughts Re: Flop Decision: Raising does clean up my Q outs in a big pot. One problem is that I'm surely going to be reraised by torgriml(maniac) regardless of the action behind me and there is still the danger that CO(tight, solid player) has an overpair and will 3-bet me. This is a difficult spot and I just wanted to see a turn card as cheaply as possible. I decided to call. Re: Pre Flop Play CO is a very tight player and will fold often here. He has to have a good hand to 3-bet here, but with maniacal BB and calling station MP in the hand I think I have enough equity+implied odds to call pre flop. [/ QUOTE ] This was a difficult hand. I'd like to hear your thoughts. Also, is this type of post more useful than a standard hand post? I feel like I'm pre-empting a lot of discussion by posting our thoughts beforehand. I will post the rest of the hand later. 
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#2
07-13-2005, 09:53 PM
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Re: QTs with discussion.
The flop is tough, but I think preflop is an easy call. According to my calculations, you are getting 12.5:2 if mp folds, 14.5:2 if mp calls. You are about 12:2 I think to flop a flush draw or straight draw with TQs and will no doubt get paid very nicely if you hit with these players in. I think folding would be bad.
As for the flop, raising might clean up outs, yes. But I'm not sure if its worth putting an additional sb bet into this pot when its so likely you're getting 3 bet anyway. A guy with PFR of 10 (CO) isn't likely 3betting preflop with KQ, JK, KT, etc. right? MP might have those holdings but he's also likely to hold a mid pocket pair which probably doesn't fold here. Nobody is folding a 10. I would probably just call.
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#5
07-13-2005, 10:45 PM
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Re: QTs with discussion.
[ QUOTE ]
against a 70/45 i call preflop. flop is an easy fold imo. you have nothing and there are players behind you who have shown strength preflop. very ugly to proceed postflop. [/ QUOTE ] He has 4 outs to a straight. Even if you give only .5 an out to each of his overcards, not to mention his two backdraw draws, he's getting plenty of odds to see the turn.
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#9
07-13-2005, 11:31 PM
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Re: QTs with discussion.
[ QUOTE ]
against a 70/45 i call preflop. flop is an easy fold imo. you have nothing and there are players behind you who have shown strength preflop. very ugly to proceed postflop. [/ QUOTE ] Folding here is a huge mistake. I call.
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