Who is supposed to win this hand...... AND HOW DID U FIGURE IT!!!

While playing in a 5/10NL game the following hand occured.

PLAYER 1: JdQd
PLAYER 2: 10c10h

FLOP: 9d10d3c

Now counting the outs in this situation are easy but knowing what the outs are for is where some people get confused.
Player 1 has 15 cards that will improve his hand, but Player 2 has 7 outs that will improve his hand.

I get confused because Player 1 has 15 outs twice to IMRPOVE his hand. This percentage, 60%, is the percent that he will improve his hand; not the percentage that he will win the hand b/c he can still improve but not win.

I want to know how to figure the WINNING percentages of this hand not the IMPROVING percentages.

Maybe I am over thinking this, but someone PLEASE!!!! explain this to me. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[shant]

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qd Jd 417 42.12 573 57.88 0 0.00 0.421
Tc Th 573 57.88 417 42.12 0 0.00 0.579

[pryor15]

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1315734
pokenum -h jd qd - tc th -- 9d td 3c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 3c Td 9d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qd Jd 417 42.12 573 57.88 0 0.00 0.421
Tc Th 573 57.88 417 42.12 0 0.00 0.579

Thanks for these numbers, but I have ran the same simulation. I was wondering how to figure this in my head? I am sure the equation is comlicated, but I would still like to know how to do it.

As you can see the 10 10 is favored to win 58% of the time, but using conventional methods to calculate percentages you get the OEFD is a 60% favorite.

Is there a way to get the correct odds of winning when looking at the odds of improvement of BOTH hands?? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[ihardlyknowher]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for these numbers, but I have ran the same simulation. I was wondering how to figure this in my head? I am sure the equation is comlicated, but I would still like to know how to do it.

As you can see the 10 10 is favored to win 58% of the time, but using conventional methods to calculate percentages you get the OEFD is a 60% favorite.

Is there a way to get the correct odds of winning when looking at the odds of improvement of BOTH hands?? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

First off, the 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is not an out. In fact, if the board pairs at all, JQ cannot win. You should be able to calculate it from there.

Sorry bout the 3d....you are correct there, BUT

JdQd can still win with a Str8 Flush. (dont think you noticed that)

[sthief09]

just cut the non-straight flush outs by about 1/4 since the times you spike on the turn he'll fill up 10/46 or 7/47 on the turn

so you have 14 outs, 2 to a straight flush, so cut the other 12 by 1/4, leaving 9+2 = 11

[jba]

read this post and report back

[schwza]

here's how you do it:

if you're playing 5/10 NL, you should know oesfd is ~41% vs set.