Letting go...

[lil']

Sometimes I have trouble letting go on the turn when I need to. I am improving, but this one was hard for me.

The hand converter is not working with this hand history, so I have to write it out.
4 handed 30-60.

UTG (good player) raises. Button (seems OK but not as good as UTG, doesn't seem to mind cold-calling with a possibly dominated hand) cold calls. SB calls. I 3 bet with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] from the BB. UTG caps it, and we all call.

Flop - (16SB) K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
There will be some chips flying here. I check, UTG bets, button raises. SB folds and I 3 bet. UTG caps (uh-oh), button calls two and I call as well.

UTG would not cap pre-flop and on the flop with garbage. He must have Q-Q, K-K. A-K and A-A are remote but possible.

Turn - (14 BB) 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
I check. UTG bets. Button raises (I had a hard time putting him on a hand, K-Q, 8-8?).

The action is to me. Over 17BB in the pot. What do I do? I'm thinking I'm the only one holding an ace, and it's hard to imagine that either player has a straight or a jack in their hand. I think all 6 of my outs are clean, and I'm not drawing to a split, although I can't be 100% sure.

Also, if one of my outs does fall on the river, I will collect some, but not a ton, as the board will be very scary.

[bazooka_joe]

It's very likely that you're beat and that folding is your move. You're in third place unless something very strange is going on.

[Deorum]

You are getting 8.5-1 on your call, and you are 6-1 to make
your hand. This looks like a call to me, although it
becomes less clear if you feel that it will get capped
after you cold call this one.

[goofball]

Why did you say he's 6-1 to make it? There are 6 cards that help him (if you assume they all actually do) and there are 46 cards left in the deck. 46-6 is 7.67-1. again, assuming all his outs are clean.

With pot odds of 8.5 to 1, if he is 70% sure his ace outs are clean the call has no positive or negative expectation. If he's that sure more power too him, but in this spot i don't think i'm that sure and i'm folding.

[Deorum]

[ QUOTE ]
there are 46 cards left in the deck. 46-6 is 7.67-1.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 42 cards left in the deck: 2 in your hand, 4 on
the board, and 4 in your opponent's hands. He did state
that he felt it was likely that all of his outs were live,
which means that they are not in his opponent's hands.
Also, when calculating ratios, it is important to not add
the second value to the first [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] So even if you did not
take the opponent's cards into consideration, the odds would
be 40-6, not 46-6. But since we can say that four of the
"blanks" for our hero are in our opponent's hands (probably
a lot of kings or queens and eights) we can assume 42 unseen
cards.

[bisonbison]

lil, could you PM me the history?

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
there are 46 cards left in the deck. 46-6 is 7.67-1.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 42 cards left in the deck: 2 in your hand, 4 on
the board, and 4 in your opponent's hands. He did state
that he felt it was likely that all of his outs were live,
which means that they are not in his opponent's hands.
Also, when calculating ratios, it is important to not add
the second value to the first [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] So even if you did not
take the opponent's cards into consideration, the odds would
be 40-6, not 46-6. But since we can say that four of the
"blanks" for our hero are in our opponent's hands (probably
a lot of kings or queens and eights) we can assume 42 unseen
cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

The cards in your opponents hands are part of the "unseen" group.

-Scott

[GuyOnTilt]

There are 6 cards that help him (if you assume they all actually do) and there are 46 cards left in the deck. 46-6 is 7.67-1. again, assuming all his outs are clean.

40 blanks:6 outs is 20:3 or 6.7:1 against.

GoT

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey lil',

Like you said, your 6 outs are looking very, very clean here. You're not quite getting 17:2 here because you're not closing the action and a 3-bet is very likely. On average I would guess it'll go somewhere between 3 and 3.5 bets on the turn. If it were 3 then you'd be getting 20:3, or 6.7:1, plus the 2 extra bets you gain on the river by betting out would put it at 22:3, or 7.3:1, so you should call. But the way I see it, it's going to go more than 3 bets here on average. If it were 3.5 then you'd be getting 21:3.5, or 6:1, plus 2 extra bets is 23:3.5 or 6.6:1. Not quite enough considering we're not 100% positive that you're outs are clean. There's also the slight chance that the strongest hand out there is 2-pair and that UTG has the other aces, which gives you 6 extra 2 pair outs, but only to chop, and makes your current 6 outs chopping outs as well, so that all washes and don't worry about it. UTG could also have AK here and MP 2-pair which would give you 3 extra outs, but calling a pairing board would mean factoring in reverse implied odds as well, so it would come pretty close to washing as well with only 3 extra's.

It's close here, but I think you should fold it.

Edit: I missed that it was 4-handed. In that case, there may still be a very slight chance you're ahead of something like UTG's AK and Button's KJ. Very slight. But again, that requires calling down blanks... It's really close though. I wouldn't fault you either way.

GoT

[lil']

You're in third place unless something very strange is going on.
I was 99% sure I was in third place. That was never in question. I was wondering what they had and if calling was worthwhile.