Equity bet or free card?

Sinnister · #1 07-01-2005, 04:38 PM

Title kinda speaks 4 itself, Over 4 oppts i know i have over 30% euquity should i have bet and built the pot or was takin the free card okay?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $1.
UTG calls, MP calls, CO (poster) checks, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, MP calls, CO calls, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, MP checks, CO checks, Hero checks.

River: (9.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, MP checks, CO bets, Hero raises, UTG folds, MP folds, CO calls.

Final Pot: 13.25 BB

bozlax · #2 07-01-2005, 05:05 PM

Closing the betting, with a coordinated board, I take the free card, here.

DerFleischmeister · #3 07-01-2005, 05:06 PM

You only have 35% equity on the flop, with two cards to come. With a (good) flush draw on the turn, and only one card to come, your equity drops to 20% (or lower, depending on the quality of your flush draw.)

Free card is g00t.

DerFleischmeister · #4 07-01-2005, 05:07 PM

Man, I gotta work on my 20 MPW typing speed.

deception5 · #5 07-01-2005, 05:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You only have 35% equity on the flop, with two cards to come. With a (good) flush draw on the turn, and only one card to come, your equity drops to 20% (or lower, depending on the quality of your flush draw.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Both are actually a little higher because usually the overcard outs are good. But your point is absolutely correct. The flop raise is good because you have huge equity and because you might get a free card. Take it!

callydrias · #6 07-01-2005, 05:25 PM

Your equity for the flush alone is only around 20% after you see the turn card. Give yourself ~4 outs for your overcards as well (discounted for domination and reverse domination) and now your equity is about 26%. That's enough to bet, but not by much. You'd like to see a free card, but you don't want to give a straight draw a free card either. Betting won't drive out any gutshot or low pair (pot size) but it might clean up some of your overcard outs. I think checking is okay, but betting is marginally better.

bozlax · #7 07-01-2005, 05:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think checking is okay, but betting is marginally better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right up until you get C/R'd by an EP TPTK, and then you're in a world of [censored], Private Pyle.

callydrias · #8 07-01-2005, 05:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think checking is okay, but betting is marginally better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right up until you get C/R'd by an EP TPTK, and then you're in a world of [censored], Private Pyle.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a possibility, sure. I'd like to have a read on UTG and see his aggression numbers - high post-flop aggr and I take a free card. Worst case, we get check-raised, the MPs get knocked out (possibly cleaning up our overcard outs), and we call with enough pot odds to sink a ship. Against an average opponent, I don't think this case is going to happen that often, and even if it does, it's not that bad.

TripleH68 · #9 07-01-2005, 05:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Betting won't drive out any gutshot or low pair (pot size) but it might clean up some of your overcard outs. I think checking is okay, but betting is marginally better.

[/ QUOTE ]

With KQ it doesn't seem cleaning up overcard outs is a worthwhile reason to bet here. I lean toward the free card...

GTSamIAm · #10 07-01-2005, 06:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think checking is okay, but betting is marginally better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right up until you get C/R'd by an EP TPTK, and then you're in a world of [censored], Private Pyle.

[/ QUOTE ]

A little pessimistic? I don't think you'll get c/r'ed here a lot. I like the turn bet. It also disguises your hand if you hit your flush. If you check the turn and a flush card comes, it's obvious that you may have hit your flush. I'm not saying 0.5/1 players are smart, but some will notice. So I think betting increases your implied odds.