($6) - Blind Wars - Really lost with analyzing my odds

DawnToDusk · #1 09-14-2005, 02:06 PM

So I am in this SnG and have a good image. I have been showing down good hands and making good calls and am getting respect. I plan on using this in the late stage to steal some more blinds. But this hand came up when I was in the blinds.

Eight people left with the blinds at 25/50 and I have the second largest chip stack, just 150ish below the largest chip stack. Button is really loose and semi-passive/aggressive. Needs a monster hand to do betting. So he calls and I am without a doubt ahead of him in my hand. And the BB is really tight. Seen him play two hands so far this whole SnG. So I raise to steal the BB and if possible see if the button will go all in. Well the button folds, but the BB actually raises me. So I know I am behind when he rasies but I call with good pot odds.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) converter

BB (t630)
UTG (t895)
UTG+1 (t1775)
MP1 (t810)
MP2 (t1505)
CO (t450)
Button (t335)
Hero (t1600)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
5 folds, Button calls t50, Hero raises to t175, BB raises to t300, Button folds, Hero calls t125.

Flop: (t650) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Hero calls t330.

Turn: (t980) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: (t980) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: t980

My question was there any way to get away from this hand? It seemed like I was getting good pot odds to call. I figured he had AJ, AQ, AK, or anything from 77+. I knew I was an underdog, but does that mean I should of folded on the flop or even preflop? On the flop it was 125 to win 525 and on the flop it was 330 to win 855. On the flop I figured I had at least eight outs. I didn't value the flush at 9 as he could of had a heart higher than ten. I did 6 for the flush. And gave the ace 1.5 outs and the ten 1 out. Was this just a bad call?

Really lost on this hand.

bluefeet · #2 09-14-2005, 03:47 PM

If your intention was to get shortie all-in - I'm not doing it with this hand, these blinds, PF. I would rather limp along, looking to c/r him if/when I hit the flop. If I DID limp, and BB raised with ideas similar to yours, I'd simply fold.

Given you DID raise, I'm still reluctant to call this PF - despite having 175chips invested. A-weak-kicker out of position doesn't bold well for you.

If the blinds where higher, I don't have a problem putting them both in PF - assuming Button's limp isn't anything out of the ordinary (and assuming you guys had a similar chip:BB situation).

DawnToDusk · #3 09-14-2005, 04:56 PM

So are you not really using pot odds as much at the lower levels? It sounds like to me your saying the risk vs reward just isn't here when a hand this weak, OOP, with blinds so low.

And if thats the case where we don't use pot odds as much in the lower limits, when do when? When someone has a stack like the tenth of a size of ours?

Fatdogs12 · #4 09-14-2005, 05:01 PM

It depends... right now you got a lot of chips and the blinds just arn't worth it. I don't think you are gonna want to play this hand even if you got him 55/45. It's just not worth it. With a stack this size you need to wait and protect it more.

Even if you have 800 chips you don't want any piece of this.
However if I HAD to do one thing or another I would push all in over his reraise, at least then you get SOME fold equity even though it's not much. Otherwise I just fold this preflop.

DawnToDusk · #5 09-14-2005, 05:16 PM

I had a similar hand come up like two SnGs ago. It was 5 handed and I got ATh in the SB. The blinds were 75/150 and I was chip lead with like 3300. UTG limped and it was folded to me where I pushed in.

Do you think this move is a viable one? UTG had around 800 left and the BB had about 1000. If hands like these come up should I be pushing in as opposed to just raising to help get the fold equity up?

I guess I could also use some help addressing what hands I should be more aggressive with in the BB/SB when I have chip lead and stuff.

bluefeet · #6 09-14-2005, 05:27 PM

yes, that one sounds good. always about the risk/reward - generally fewer risks early when the rewards aren't so readily apparent. also, you're putting the burden 100% squarley on their shoulders vs. putting yourself at risk, where the rewards may or may not be there.

start posting all of these hands in question - tons of push-bot/ICM guru's willing to help.