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#1
10-05-2005, 02:25 PM
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Isolation
live game, 30-60, blah blah blah....
UTG raises, folds around to me, on the button, with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] I look at the BB and he's got chips in his hand and the SB looks like he's going to muck at the speed of light. I 3-bet and the SB mucks, BB puts chips back in his stack and folds. UTG studies, and looks as if he wants to re-raise, but he just calls. Flop j [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] He checks, I bet, he calls. Turn 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] BB does a club check, then bets. Raise or call here? 
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#2
10-05-2005, 02:28 PM
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Re: Isolation
raise.
raise.
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#3
10-05-2005, 02:40 PM
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Re: Isolation
I don't see much advantage in raising vs calling in terms of winning the pot. I also don't see much advantage to a raise in terms of getting more money in, as you cannot want to put in 3 BB on the turn and river at this point. Only the 2 9s will make you excited about betting the river for value after raising and being called. I DO though see downside to raising. Namely, a 3-bet really sucks. You can be drawing anywhere from 0 to 11 outs, so handling the 3-bet is painful. In light of this, I vote call. -eric
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#4
10-05-2005, 02:43 PM
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Re: Isolation
raise is only an option is UTG is weak tight and could fold a pair of tens.
The probably with raising is what do you do if you are 3-bet? The value in raising is possible getting a free showdown, however, in most cases you will not get paid off if you improve. If this UTG player is reasonable, he either has AK or an overpair. You are only ahead of AK and he (assuming a club) is drawing to 13 clean outs so he likely won't fold. On the river, you only have 5 outs to improve (2 9s and 3 nonclub tens which would get you paid by an overpair. To summarize, you are likely behind. Also, you aren't getting a better hand to fold with a turn raise. so a raise is likely inappropriate. this makes calling a better calling given pot size.
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#6
10-05-2005, 02:51 PM
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Re: Isolation
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] raise. raise. [/ QUOTE ] please expound on your thoughts. [/ QUOTE ] punish this guy for betting his draw. the only hand you need to worry about TT, and that hand will never threebet anyway. if this player is not tricky/tough, then his recheck of his hole cards is certainly a tell. the flop checkcall/turn lead is v rarely a set/overpair so i like 99. you dont know that this guy is gonna follow through with a bluff on the end (this aint the internet), so charge his ass now. if he threebets, id usually fourbet. punish this BS.
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#7
10-05-2005, 04:26 PM
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Re: Isolation
surely the club check on the turn is a tell, and it likely signifies to me a big ace, and, in fact, he has to have a very small range of hands now, either a pair better than mine or a big flush draw.
if this is 50/50 (him having either hand) would it be correct to raise?
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#8
10-05-2005, 04:44 PM
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Re: Isolation
Or the flush... The "lemme check me hole cards" is the oldest trick in the book when you actually have the flush. You get all sorts of action from players who want to "punish the draw".
However, I think I like just calling here. It's just not clear where you are. Best possible is, I think ahead 70/30. Worst possible is... well, drawing dead. 0-14 outs if you are behind. The question is, how often is he betting here with his 14 outs vs. how often is he betting with the best hand. Add in all the hands that he 3bets (flushes, AJ, JJ, whatever) and I think this is a call. However, I think the 3bet is very unlikely. I think we should concentrate on is this a VB to prevent you from checking behind with outs or is it a semi-bluff with 14 outs?
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#10
10-05-2005, 05:07 PM
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Re: Isolation
[ QUOTE ]
surely the club check on the turn is a tell, and it likely signifies to me a big ace, and, in fact, he has to have a very small range of hands now, either a pair better than mine or a big flush draw. if this is 50/50 (him having either hand) would it be correct to raise? [/ QUOTE ] I don't see how it can be 50/50 given his flop play. But assuming it was then a raise would be correct in this situation provided you won't get 3bet.
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