Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Sixteen

[jedinite]

Last week was another dismal one, resulting in two consecutive significantly losing weeks in 14 and 15, erasing a +13.45 unit profit that I'd shown up to week 13. My system loves the plays this week, and actually shows very little difference in value among the top four plays.

For the Week: 2-3, loss on Game of the Week. -6 units on recommended plays.
Season: 9-6 (60%) on Game of the Week. 32-32 (50%) on overall picks. -4.35 units on recommended plays for the season

Recommending a balanced 4-3-3-3 play under my system this week. (Small bankrolls play 2-1-1-1 or however you want to look at it).

San Diego -1 over Kansas City
Here come the streak-breakers. In October the Chargers dropped the Patriots 21-game home winning streak with a 41-17 victory. Last Sunday, the Chargers smashed the Colt's 13-game winning streak and their 12-game home winning streak. Now the Chargers roll in to Kansas City and are going to crack the KC 17-game winning streak in December at Arrowhead. This is an absolute must-win for both teams, but San Diego has the edge in tiebreaker and the Chiefs will need a ton of help even if they were to pull out a victory here. The Chiefs defense has been pounded for more than 400 yards and 27 or more points in their last two games. KC's playoff hopes are over: even if the Chiefs would somehow manage to beat San Diego here AND beat Cincy next week, they'd need the Chargers to lose next week The Chiefs have already lost their two must-win games, losing a close one to Dallas and failing to show up on defense against the Giants last week. The Chiefs success this year has come on the legs of Larry Johnson - but San Diego is the #1 rushing defense in the NFL. The Chiefs are going to be stuffed on the ground, and San Diego will pressure KC QB Trent Green when he drops back to pass. Green may be without WR Eddie Kennison, by far his favorite target. The Chiefs defense has been absolutely awful in the past few weeks, and one of the few defensive standouts in DE Eric Hicks is very questionable with a shoulder injury and did very limited work in practice yesterday. LaDainian Tomlinson will have decent game, opening up the run on the ground, and then Drew Brees and company will take to the air against the porous KC secondary. Brees and TE Antonio Gates will also connect several times on middle routes en route to a monster game for Gates. This is going to be a bad, bad blowout early - the Chargers get up early, and the Chiefs deflate. KC might tack on a meaningless TD or two late, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 21-7 or worse going in to the half. Anyone who thinks KC can win this game is paying attention only to the Chief's magical home record in December and being misled by their offensive firepower - and is overlooking their tremendously terrible defensive performances all season which have been magnified last week. KC's magical record in December in Arrowhead almost doesn't apply here: a ton of season ticket holders that I know aren't planning to go to the game, and literally can't give their tickets away. I've been offered, no kidding, seventeen sets of tickets this week. Chargers build a quick, early lead, and KC collapses. Stadium will be 3/4ths empty by the fourth quarter. 28-17 San Diego. Game of the Week.

Cincy -13.5 (+100) vs Buffalo
The Bengals need a win here to keep alive their drive to secure the #2 seed in the AFC behind the Colts. Cinci needs to win out, and needs Denver to lose one game, to secure the #2 seed and the coveted Wild Card weekend bye. Bills are 0-6 on the road. Buffalo owns the league's worst run defense (144.3 yards a game), have also gotten burned bad in secondary of late, allowing 387, 336 and 259 passing yards the past three weeks. The Bengals' defense leads the NFL with 30 interceptions, and should see one and maybe two in this game. Expect to hear "Rudi, Rudi, Rudi" chants on Sportscenter on Monday. Cinci opens the run game early, and blows several TDs through the air once the Bills try to walk up a safety to help against the run. 31-14 Bengals. This game is available at -13.5 +100 at Pinnacle.

Carolina -5 vs Dallas
Dallas is in the middle of the worst collapse in franchise history, losing three of their last four. After the 35-7 blowout to the Redskins, Dallas is reduced to a must-win and must-get-help scenario to make the playoffs. Looking at the bubble from the outside-in, the team's going to come out flat yet again. On the other side of the ball, Carolina needs a win to clench their playoff spot (and could clench the NFC South title if the Falcons upset Tampa Bay). Steve Smith should have a solid game against a hobbled Cowboys secondary - both Dallas CBs are injured, Anthony Henry with an abdominal strain and Aaron Glen with a high ankle sprain. Dallas' best option is going to be putting Terence Newman on Smith, but that's still a tremendous mismatch. Dallas gave up six sacks last week, and now they face Mike Rucker and Julius Peppers, who are among the league's top defensive end pairs. The Cowboys will be forced to mass protect on passing downs, which will allow Carolina to blanket the Cowboys WRs. Look for Carolina to load up against the run, and force Bledsoe to go to the air where they can blitz him extensively. Panthers CB Ken Lucas will be playing angry after getting snubbed as a third alternate to the Pro Bowl despite having a tremendous season. Look for at least one interception by Lucas. 24-14 Carolina.

Chicago -7 (+103) at Green Bay
RB Samkon Gado (partially torn MCL) being replaced by third-down back Tony Fisher. The Bears clinch the NFC North with a victory, and also keep the pressure on Seattle for home-field advantage. Chicago will want to rest its defensive starters as much as possible, which will mean building a big lead early and putting the game away so that they can rest starters. Green Bay should sit Favre in favor of Aaron Rodgers in the second half, once the Bears put the game away in the first. Chicago's whole offense is significantly upgraded with the return of QB Rex Grossman. Chicago returns FS Chris Harris and SS Mike Brown. The Chicago D is also playing for the NFL record for points allowed in a season (165, the 2000 Ravens), currently sitting at 151 allowed. Chicago has a lot to play for, Green Bay just doesn't. 21-0 Chicago in a shutout. Green Bay might see two attempts at a fieldgoal at best. Game available at Pinnacle at -7 (+103)

Tease of the Week: Cincy -6.5, Denver -6, San Diego +6, Panthers +2, Chicago PK at 7/2
While this is normally not a teaser I would play (five team 7-point 7/2), my system loves these four games so much, and loves Denver inside a touchdown. So I'm going ahead and bundling them all. Moving the Cinci and Denver games under seven is a extremely valuable play here. Chicago down to a PK also has value. Moving San Diego +6 and Carolina +2 are included to improve the payout. Two units to win seven units. If you're looking for a more conservative teaser purely on the value of moving points, I'd recommend only including Cinci, Denver, and Chicago at a 7/5 payout.

[jedinite]

Carolina is available at -4.5 +102 on Pinnacle. Not a lot of difference in that half point, but the +102 on top of the half point is extremely attractive if you're interested in the game but not already on it.

I am 2-1 YTD on NFL 5 Team teases +6.0 units.
Here goes my 4th. We share 3 of the same teams so I will be routing for you =).

1 unit to win 3.5 units

Cincinnati Bengals -7
Pittsburgh Steelers Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars +1
Denver Broncos -6½
Chicago Bears Pick

Good luck to both of us.

[jedinite]

good luck I like the play, the Steelers are a strong addition in my opinion. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

i think your most shaky pick is the bears, and best pick is probably the panthers

If Grossman is really a huge difference maker then i like the pick, im not sold on that.

The bottom line with the cowboys is they cant protect Bledsoe, and the most important factor in Carolina covering that game. Their defense might play well but I cant see them producing on offense at all.

[jedinite]

adding 12 units on Chicago to make it 15 total as a chaser. if I'm going to go down as an 0'fer, I might as well go down in flames eh.

play inside your bankroll, yadda yadda...

[ QUOTE ]
adding 12 units on Chicago to make it 15 total as a chaser. if I'm going to go down as an 0'fer, I might as well go down in flames eh.

play inside your bankroll, yadda yadda...

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and this is why a units transacted grading system is a whole lot more true than W-L-T [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Sure I could play 20 units on GB +7 tomorrow to break even on the season but under W-L it would just be reflected as 1-0 or 0-1.

[CCx]

tough day dude... but i'm with you, run it back on one biggie - good luck i'm rooting for you

[ QUOTE ]
adding 12 units on Chicago to make it 15 total as a chaser. if I'm going to go down as an 0'fer, I might as well go down in flames eh.

play inside your bankroll, yadda yadda...

[/ QUOTE ]

for what it's worth jedi I really, *really* like GB tomorrow night. No need to chase under any circumstances but imo this is worse than your avg wager.

Down 2 units on this weekends NFL.
Open on a 2 team 6.5pt teaser on Chicago -1/2pt for 2.5 units, so I'll be routing for you again. Better luck for us tomorrow.
The other game in my teaser was Nevada in the bowl game, Loved that extra pt that was just missed 5 min ago [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].