Routine-seeming chip loser

[parappa]

How do I fix this? Fold the flop? Play it as is? I'm playing the JJ for set value only, that's why I'm limping in, but I seem to get suckered in when I flop an overpair. Do I give him credit for the straight? Surely I have to fold to the queen.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (9 handed)

Hero (t775)
CO (t985)
Button (t785)
SB (t785)
BB (t1595)
UTG (t800)
UTG+1 (t850)
MP1 (t635)
MP2 (t790)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG folds,UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero calls t15, CO folds, Button calls t15, SB calls t5, BB checks.

Flop: (t55) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets t75, Button calls t75, SB folds, BB calls t75.

Turn: (t280) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero bets t150, Button folds, BB calls t150.

River: (t580) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB bets t300, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t880

[LinusKS]

I think just calling with JJ first-in MP early in PP is not such a terrible play. I like it because when you're first in with a raise here you're too likely to either win the blinds or get re-raised for more than you want to call. The call helps avoid those problems, and allows you to call the kind of raise AK, AQ, KQ, and your random PP bluffer is likely to make.

I think the 75T after the flop was right. You're almost certain to be ahead here, but you're afraid of A.) another straight-card, and B.) another spade.

The 7c is very very good for you on the turn. It's not any of your scare-cards, and you still have an over-pair. Given that nobody's bet except for you, I find it hard to believe you're not still ahead here.

I will argue your 150T on the turn was too small. I think you're afraid to be pot-committed, here, but I don't think you should be. You've got an overpair, this is PP, and I don't think it gets better than this.

I think the big stack is just chasing here, and it's time to live or die by this hand. Other than getting your set, this hand has gone about as well as it possibly could have.

I would have bet half my stack here, and be prepared to put in the rest on the river no matter what.

Also, I think just going all-in here is fine too, but I picture the big stack folding if you do that, and I'd prefer to suck one more bet out of him first.

Of course, there's always the chance he'll finally hit an out on the river, so that's the cost of trying to get the extra bet.

[LinusKS]

In answer to your actual question, I don't know whether he had a queen or not. Given the size of his bet, I'd say there's a pretty good chance that he did - but whether it was a 60% chance or a 40% chance I don't know.

He might have been just hoping to scare you out.

Given your exact situation, I'd probably fold too, since I don't like to put my whole stack on the line for a 50/50 shot.

But I still like either going all-in, or pot-committing yourself on the turn. You can't do anything about people sucking out on you (and if he was drawing to a Q, that was a suck-out), but you can charge them for the opportunity to do so.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm playing the JJ for set value only, that's why I'm limping in

[/ QUOTE ]

Wha? You have the 4th best starting hand, why are you scared of raising here? Fix this hand by raising preflop.

You don't want to play this hand against a random hand in the BB, and SB could complete just about any hand for 5 chips, so you'll have no idea where you stand on the flop, even though you'll have the best hand much of the time. Don't give BB and SB a free/cheap shot at outflopping you with some randomish hand.

I think limping would be a better play if it was from EP at a table with some loose raisers, where you could limp/come over the top of player raising some semi-junky hands.

[adanthar]

I don't think he had a Q, unless it was Q4-Q2 or possibly AQ. What I do think is that not raising PF cost you this hand.

This goes back to the tournament thread where Lori and I were arguing about jacks. The fact is that jacks do not play well when your hand isn't defined. You got pretty lucky with a very good flop, but you were up against an opponent with any two cards and would have to slow down when any of *12* cards hit the turn or river. Even a minimum raise, as much as I hate those, would narrow his hand down to something that you could reasonably know was behind you here. Instead, he could have a dozen hands that beat you, another three or four draws, or merely top pair with a decent kicker. You don't know and can't tell.

Personally, I'd have put him on either something big or a draw in order for him to have called you on the flop at all, because unless he is an idiot he's not going to call out of position with a bare 2, 3, or 4. When he calls a decent bet on the turn, I think I am in trouble. On the river, anything that he holds that *calls* a bet probably has me beat unless it's exactly A4; when he bets out, I am thinking 'AQ/2p+, failed draw, or A4, in that order of likelihood' and have a VERY tough decision to make.

And, again, this all goes back to raising preflop and being happy with the blinds or one caller.

[durron597]

I have to agree with adanthar here. You are in much later position with your JJ, thus it is worth a raise. UTG you can limp with it and get away cheaply, but in LMP you really need to put in a raise to get the 56 that your probably lost against to fold.

[LinusKS]

In my experience, PP players will call a min raise or a small raise with all kinds of hands, so I'm not sure how much information you get by raising. I'm also not sure how much more info you get with a small raise. Eg, you do get some info from the fact that no one raised after him (no one has AQ, for example.)

I'm not necessarily against a smallish raise here, I'm just arguing you need a better reason than that. You might raise because you think you have the best hand, for example.

The problem - for me, anyway - is that early on you're not really looking to get into a confrontation, and you're not looking to throw away chips if someone comes over your head, or an A, K, or Q comes on the flop.

[adanthar]

Oh, I wouldn't raise small. My L1 raises are all to T60-T75 or more; my goal isn't exactly to see a lot of flops.

And if someone goes over the top? At level 1, that's happened exactly three times in over three hundred different tournaments, but if it does, even a T200 reraise isn't going to cripple you if you call and check/fold a flop on which you don't have an overpair.

More importantly, if you don't raise, you wind up throwing away a lot *more* chips in the long run and this hand is a prime example of why.

[donny5k]

Problems like these define for me why I like Pokerstars setup so much more.

[parappa]

[ QUOTE ]
More importantly, if you don't raise, you wind up throwing away a lot *more* chips in the long run and this hand is a prime example of why.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, this is an eminently reasonable point, isn't it? I can either raise it up to 75 or 90 or something preflop, or I can call the 15 along with 3 or 4 others, hit my overpair, then have to put the 90 in in a similar position on the flop.

Of course, what I'm trying to do by limping is avoid losing the preflop chips the large percentage of the time an A/K/Q flops, but by doing that I leave my overpair a bit more vulnerable to flushes, straights, or even 2-pairs, and I have to play every scary board cautiously.

I'm going to review the JJ thread, but I think in this situation that I'm starting to understand that I'm going to play an overpair much more weakly here if I'm not willing to raise pre-flop, and if I am willing to raise preflop that it's simply going to be a more expensive flop fold a lot of the time.