Short stack at an MMT final table

[sunek]

Hi

This hand has been haunting me for a few days now. MMT 15+1.5 at pacific 700 players started I am at the final table and 6 players left. Blinds are 5000/10.000 and I am in the BB with the shortest stack on 33.000. The rest of the stacks are two short stacks on approximately 40.000 each and three large stacks where the chip leader was sitting on 350.000.
The price structure for the remaining 6 places looked like this: 6=400$, 5=500$, 4=600, 3=700, 2=1400 and 2600 to first place. Obviously the two first places would be the most interesting.
All the remaining players were tight and aggressive and none of the seemed to bluff very much.

Chip leader is UTG and raises to 20.000 everybody folds to me who is in the BB with JTo. Based on he’s earlier play and common sense I put him on a smaller pair or two over cards. He only raises to 2xBB so he can drop his hand if one of the other big stacks comes over the top on him. So his hand is stronger than mine but not much.

So now the big question is should I push my stack and pray for a good board and almost be back in business if I double my stack? He obviously won’t fold if I push since my stack is this short. Or should I play safe and fold and hope to get a better hand and hope that one of the other short stacks will drop out before me so I will be placed higher on the price list.

I my own opinion this is a pretty easy choice, but I am looking forward to hear your comments and hear if you agree.

Best regards

sunek

[dmk]

clear push w/ 3BB HU

[ QUOTE ]
So now the big question is should I push my stack and pray for a good board and almost be back in business if I double my stack? He obviously won’t fold if I push since my stack is this short.

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You answered your own question. In the scenario you described, you have nothing to gain by pushing since the chip leader won't fold, which is ideally what you would want in this circumstance (an unchallenged near double up).

Why not just call getting 3.5-1 odds, which is probably more than enough to play JTo? This leaves enough chips for a few more hands if the flop totally misses you and you have to check/fold after the flop. It also leaves you enough to bet about half the pot if the flop catches you.

Your opponent will be getting decent enough odds to call after the flop, as he will preflop. So whether you push preflop or on the flop makes absolutely no difference to him, but could make all the difference in the world to you (e.g., busting out or living to see another hand or two).

Maybe the flop misses you, then you fold, and on the next hand another player busts out, making you an easy hundred bucks.

It may not seem like much, but sometimes this is the difference between flaming out in 6th, and making your own breaks and getting to 4th or 3rd.

Case in point from the other night. I started a FT in 7th out of 10. Pretty soon I was 7th out of 7 left, and stuck with a short stack to boot. But I ended the tournament in 2nd. Why, because I played my hands smartly and gave the opponents a chance to fight among themselves when I wasn't strong, and some of them busted out.

In your case, it just seems very straight forward. You can't push because your opponent won't fold. You can't fold because you're getting plenty of odds. So you call, knowing full well what your next decision will be before the cards are even turned.

IMHO, this is the best scenario in poker. That is, knowing your next move before the cards even come.

stop and goooooo!

I don't know how much fold equity you'll have (probably pretty close to 0) but I'm sure it's more than if you push preflop.

Chances are pretty good he's got a better high card than you.

[arcticfox]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not just call getting 3.5-1 odds, which is probably more than enough to play JTo? This leaves enough chips for a few more hands if the flop totally misses you and you have to check/fold after the flop. It also leaves you enough to bet about half the pot if the flop catches you.


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Uhhh, this is such horrible advice. you have 3x the BB, pre-flop, 1x after calling, folding on the flop is just awful. Stop and go is the best play although any decent BB will be calling on the flop anyway but there are some idiots around who fold so for that 1% chance you may as well push on the flop whatever falls.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why not just call getting 3.5-1 odds, which is probably more than enough to play JTo? This leaves enough chips for a few more hands if the flop totally misses you and you have to check/fold after the flop. It also leaves you enough to bet about half the pot if the flop catches you.


[/ QUOTE ]

Uhhh, this is such horrible advice. you have 3x the BB, pre-flop, 1x after calling, folding on the flop is just awful. Stop and go is the best play although any decent BB will be calling on the flop anyway but there are some idiots around who fold so for that 1% chance you may as well push on the flop whatever falls.

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Sorry but I beg to differ. After the cold call preflop, the player still has 2.3xBB, 33k-10k=23k, or at worst 1.8xBB if you take away the upcoming SB.

If the flop misses the player completely, there is no reason in this situation to throw live chips after dead chips. Forgive me, but the concepts of fold equity and sng don't apply here because the big stack is going to call regardless. The big stack is looking to bust out little stacks, even if that means exposure to some minor risk.

Even implied odds don't justify the post flop push here. If the flop misses the player completely, then at best the player is drawing to 6 outs and a possible runner-runner suckout. Assuming the big stack calls a post flop all in, the best implied odds the player will see is what?, about 3-1 or 4-1. That's not enough to go with on a at-best 5-1 or 6-1 shot.

It makes no sense to go any further with this hand unless the flop catches the player decently, because the player most likely has very little chance to win without it. With an empty flop, the player is a huge dog to any single overcard, which is probably the minimum strength hand that the big stack will hold.

If this were normal play out of the money, then sure maybe you fire away here to try and double up. But this is the final table, with 2 or 3 other players within easy reach of busting out, with an additional $100 of profit for every opponent that goes out earlier than the player.

Assuming the player cold calls, then check/fold if the flop is a complete dud, then the player still has 5 more hands to see including 4 for "free" before being completely totally committed at the next big blind. Admittedly, the player is still on thin ice, but better to be struggling on thin ice for a bit longer, then to have kicked in your own hole to fall into.

That is 5 full chances to give one of the other smallish stacks a chance to bust out. If there is an easier way to earn $100 or $200 profit, then I'd like to know what it is.

[nath]

Well, if you really want to play to win, the stop and go is your best choice. Your hand is too good to fold (JTo with an M of 2? Hell yeah!) and a stop-and-go raises your folding equity from "zero" to "slightly more than zero". Most likely you won't get him to fold and you'll need to get lucky to win. Still, if you want any shot at moving up to the significant money in the tournament you have to do this.

(If you manage to win the pot and double up, you should immediately use your newfound leverage to start opening all-in when you get a chance.)

[sunek]

Hi

Thank you for your answers. I am not quite familiar with the stop-and-go move. As I understand it I should call and push if the flop hits me and is likely to have missed my opponent. Is this correct?

Regards

sunek

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi

Thank you for your answers. I am not quite familiar with the stop-and-go move. As I understand it I should call and push if the flop hits me and is likely to have missed my opponent. Is this correct?

Regards

sunek

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Not quite. It means you're pushing any flop. (OK, maybe you check-call top two or better.)
It's basically hoping that UTG finds the flop scary enough to fold. With your short stack here, the pot odds will probably demand he call anyway, but you never know.

[sunek]

Thank you.

BTW what actually happened was this:
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I pushed my stack; he took a long thinking break and called. He turned over KQo the flop showed a Queen and two small cards. Turn and river was blank as well – however I still got 400 $ from a 15 $ investment so if I can do this more often it is still good business [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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