Flush draw gone bad

vetman81 · #1 12-23-2004, 02:28 PM

I didnt have stats on either of these players at the time.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP2 raises, MP3 calls, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.33 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP2 raises, MP3 3-bets, Hero calls, MP2 caps, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.16 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, MP3 raises, Hero calls, MP2 3-bets, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

River: (18.16 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, MP3 raises, Hero folds, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 22.16 BB

On the flop, I am getting about 6-1, and if it comes back capped to me, I am still getting over 4-1. When it comes back to me on the turn, I am getting about 6-1, and if it comes back capped, I am still getting 4.3 to 1. However, if I discount one or two outs, then I am not getting the odds to call on the turn if it is capped. Should I have folded the turn? It seems to me like it is very close odds wise, but I may be doing something wrong. Thanks for the help.

Nick C · #2 12-23-2004, 03:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop, I am getting about 6-1, and if it comes back capped to me, I am still getting over 4-1. When it comes back to me on the turn, I am getting about 6-1, and if it comes back capped, I am still getting 4.3 to 1. However, if I discount one or two outs, then I am not getting the odds to call on the turn if it is capped. Should I have folded the turn? It seems to me like it is very close odds wise, but I may be doing something wrong. Thanks for the help.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you weren't thinking of folding the flop. One of my opponents would have to show me his ace-high flush draw before I'd do that. (Anyway, it doesn't sound like you were thinking of folding the flop.)

But, anyway, I wouldn't fold on the turn either. I'm not going to feel too comfortable if the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] falls on the river, but I still think any other diamond will likely give me the best hand. Unless someone has A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], I think it's more likely that one of my opponents has a set of jacks and the other has an overpair than it is that one of them is pumping a nut flush draw this hard. And, yeah, we don't really have the immediate odds to call on the turn if we know that there's a set of jacks out and it's going to get capped behind us. Actually, you aren't quite getting the immediate odds if someone has a set of jacks and you know it'll get 3-bet behind you. (But, if you catch, you should be able to win at least a couple of bets on the river.)

I very rarely fold flush draws, and I wouldn't do it here.

private joker · #3 12-23-2004, 03:10 PM

I think you should fold the turn, because the MPs really like their hands and you're not closing the action. You don't want it to get 3-bet and capped behind you, and on top of that you might not even have the best hand if you hit your diamond. You could be up against the nut flush draw (even though it's unlikely in a 3-handed pot). Odds-wise, you're just about break-even anyway, so it can't be too wrong to fold the turn.

JEM7VSBL · #4 12-23-2004, 04:17 PM

i'd fold the turn here as well.

Gravy (Gravy Smoothie) · #5 12-23-2004, 05:29 PM

I would rather checkraise this flop. You know MP2 is going to bet because he was the preflop raiser. If MP3 folds to MP2's flop bet, your checkraise may set you up to take the pot down on the turn if MP2 is sitting on a hand like AK or AQ. If MP3 calls MP2's flop bet, your checkraise is for value with the flushdraw. If MP3 raises MP2's flop bet I would call two cold and reevaluate on the turn.

If MP2 doesn't bet the flop, check-call if MP3 bets or take the free card if he checks it through.