Hand v. TAG

[partygirluk]

1.5/3 blinds, 5 handed on PR.

I open on the button with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

TAG 3 bets me from BB, I call.

Flop is

K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I call his bet.

Turn is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I call his bet planning to

i) Raise the river and fold to a 3 bet unimproved.
ii) Call an Ace.

[Subby]

What about just raising on the turn? Why wait for the river?

[witeknite]

I'm with pumpkin man. That's my regular game and I really want to raise the turn. I don't think he calls your river raise w/a hand you beat more than 55% of the time. He's more likely to call your raise with a worse hand on the turn, IMHO. I'm not sure exactly what my river plan would be if the turn raise is just called.

WiteKnite

[wrto4556]

I like this line.

If he has Ax (no pair), he probably folds to your turn raise, but check/calls the river UI.

Also, he's betting worse pairs on the river and calling a raise that he may or may not have called on the turn.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
What about just raising on the turn? Why wait for the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a very good question . . . I vaguely recall a thread in which someone (Nate?) argued that waiting to raise the river in situations like this might be preferable as you're less likely to be 3-bet by a better hand (AK probably doesn't 3-bet the river, fearing you just hit a random 2-pair or were slowplaying something big). Also, something like 99 or TT probably folds to a turn raise, but might punch out a river bet, so you gain another bet from them there as well.

On the other hand, you risk letting a 3- or 5-outer hitting.

Anyone remember that thread?

[wrto4556]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone remember that thread?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup. I forgot about "hero" not being 3-bet as often on the river. I probably have it toggled, but im lazy. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Alobar]

I prolly just raise the turn. Waiting till the river means you are less likely to get 3 bet, but does that really matter? If he 3 bets you on the turn you dont really have the odds to call. You are drawing to 3 outs most of the time or 5 outs a much smaller % of the time, and sometimes are drawing dead. There is also the danger that he check/calls the river and you miss your chance to raise, when he would otherwise just call down.

I think it comes down to

1)how likely is he to fold a worse hand to your turn c/r
2)how likely is he to call a river bet with A high.

[ThePenguin]

I think your logic is spot on. Chances are, if he does have an unmade A, then he will fold to the turn raise. Assuming he has only three outs to an A, then your plan to raise the river is best.