I, uh, fold?!? Yeah, I fold!

DiamondDave · #1 01-26-2004, 06:09 AM

Kinda loose player opens for a raise UTG. Tight -n- aggressive player sitting on his immediate left makes it three bets. The very next player cold calls with an I-was-gonna-raise-but-now-I-ain't look on his face. Everyone else folds.

I'm in the BB and glance at my cards, just to make sure I don't have a monster. I have AKo and muck it.

My reasons:
1) I think UTG+1 has pocket queens or better AND plays well postflop.
2) UTG+2 has pocket sevens or higher/AK/AQs/AJs.
3) UTG might actually have a hand.
4) I'm gonna be first to act on later rounds.
5) I think the next best alternative to folding is to cap the preflop betting and dark bet the flop.
6) I have a feeling that my pair outs are dead and/or I'm against multiple draws to set trips.

Did I wuss out? Did I make a wise fold? (It's hard for me to tell, because I saw the rest of the hand played out and knowing the results colors my perception of the whole event.)

SpaceAce · #2 01-26-2004, 08:13 AM

If you really read UTG+1 for QQ or better and believe there is a good chance of strength in the other two hands, I don't think letting AKo go is such a bad play. Especially if the players' raising and calling standards make it likely that some of your outs are tied up.

Edit: To be fair, I'm not sure I would have laid it down despite what I said.

SpaceAce

glen · #3 01-26-2004, 08:44 AM

I am wondering why you put UTG+1 on pocket QQ or better. If the guy plays well like you say, and the UTG raiser is a loose raiser, I would think he would 3 bet very lightly here. . .

JPolin · #4 01-26-2004, 11:18 AM

Well from what you say it seems that UTG+1 would reraise with a variety of hands to isolate the UTG raiser. That seems to indicate to me that your AK has a good shot of being the best hand. The cold call from UTG+2 is worrying, but if he had a true monster (like QQ,KK,AA) he would have capped. I'd cap preflop.

Franchise (TTT) · #5 01-26-2004, 11:47 AM

Having AK makes it tough for the 3-better to have AA or KK, which is what you're primarily worried about. At least take the flop, it's likely you're good if an A or K flops.

andyfox · #6 01-26-2004, 12:42 PM

I'd have folded too. I'd add reason number seven: You have no pair.

I'd discount the possibility that UTG+1 is raising loose just because he knows UTG is kinda loose. UTG+1 still realizes he's UTG+1 and would likely save his looser 3-bets for when he has later position.

worm33 · #7 01-26-2004, 12:53 PM

I think folding ak here in the bb is giving up way way way too much. You probably have at least one of these players dominated, you might even have the 3 bettor dominated if he has aq. You might have the best hand. Its incredibly likely that you have the best hand if an ace or a king hits. I think capping and dark betting is the worst thing you can do though. Your not winning this pot if you miss. So call pre-flop and checkraise a flop that hits you otherwise check fold. And just because the flop came rags and utg+1 had kk doesnt make your play correct.

SoBeDude · #8 01-26-2004, 01:16 PM

I had to read this twice, and I read the other posts.

Given that you've not voluntarily put money in the pot, given that many raising, reraising, and cold-calling hands contain aces and kings, and that you're going to be out of position for the entire hand, I like the fold.

I wish I was a good enough player to make that fold. Maybe this thread will stick with me.

-Scott

Franchise (TTT) · #9 01-26-2004, 01:27 PM

I seem to do the opposite of what most of you are doing in this forum.

In that other thread, we were debating about limping after a good player with UTG+1 with KJs, and I was one of the few people saying fold.

Meanwhile, I think I'm one of the few people in this thread that think this should be a pretty easy call situation unless the 3-better is exceptionally tight and would only 3-bet with AA-QQ. If any A or K hits the flop, then it's very likely you're good against most of the hands your opponent will be 3-betting, including AJs-AQs, 88-QQ, KQs even... That and since you're holding AK, the chances of your opponents having AA, KK, and AK go way down.

Your opponents "likely having Aces or Kings in their hands" is not a reason to fold AK. If anything, it should be a reason to call, as they will get trapped for many bets when they hit and you hit, and you won't get trapped when you miss the flop (and probably take one off on the flop if the board is not likely to have make them a set or hit their kicker in their dominated hand.

You have excellent pot odds, you're most likely (very, very) good if you hit, and you have good position to checkraise the flop to clear out the 3rd player if you hit. I think it's a pretty easy call against most opponents.

SoBeDude · #10 01-26-2004, 01:44 PM

Your opponents "likely having Aces or Kings in their hands" is not a reason to fold AK. If anything, it should be a reason to call, as they will get trapped for many bets when they hit and you hit, and you won't get trapped when you miss the flop (and probably take one off on the flop if the board is not likely to have make them a set or hit their kicker in their dominated hand.

But you're completely missing an important point. When your opponents likely have cards you need to make your hand, the chance of you actually getting one on the board drop precipitiously. You're likely not drawing to 6 outs here. You may be drawing to 2, 1 or even 0 outs. Given that, your pot odds suck. And you're still out of position.

-Scott