#1
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Crap
I screwed the river I think. Villain is 32/11 after 28 hands, that's all I got, he doesnt seem crazy, but only 28 hands ya know. Pf's a little loose but I'm at a tight-arse table so I there's a decent chance I can steal.
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (7 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>. Flop: (5.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO calls. Turn: (5.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls. River: (7.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero folds. Shouldn't be betting the river if I'm not calling a raise here right? Final Pot: 10.75 BB |
#2
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Re: Crap
[ QUOTE ]
Shouldn't be betting the river if I'm not calling a raise here, right? [/ QUOTE ] I agree. |
#3
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Re: Crap
Bet/call > check/call > bet/fold > check/fold.
IMO. Alot of hands pay off this river bet, so you really want to bet, and QT will raise this river, along w/ the occasional bluff. |
#4
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Re: Crap
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Bet/call > check/call > bet/fold > check/fold. IMO. Alot of hands pay off this river bet, so you really want to bet, and QT will raise this river, along w/ the occasional bluff. [/ QUOTE ] I like bet/fold more than bet/call. Unless you are taking misclicks into account, this looks like KJ+,TT+, all hands which hero is losing to. And this hand is one I don't mind not taking to showdown. A raise here from a solid villian shows us that we are good less than 10% of the time, and it is an easy fold. Nice hand. |
#5
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Re: Crap
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And this hand is one I don't mind not taking to showdown. A raise here from a solid villian shows us that we are good less than 10% of the time, and it is an easy fold. [/ QUOTE ] We don't know he's a solid villian. With a stronger read I agree with you, but against this unknownish opponent I don't want to miss value by not betting (we get alot of value) and I want to see what he has if he C/R's. |
#6
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Re: Crap
I will certainly concede your last point, there is a lot of value here in just seeing what hand he is playing.
However, I don't think calling this raise is +EV for $$$. I agree about the bet, but is hero really good here 1 out of 10 times? I'm not so sure. Then again, PokerStove gives his hand 8.7% equity against (TT+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo)... so it is close. I certainly don't think it would be a major mistake either way. |
#7
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Re: Crap
for now I think we assume that he's a mostly 'reasonable' player.
So I'm for bet/fold on the river. You definitely have value on his range of calling hands. Many players just won't be laying-down A5 here. Some guys will refuse to lay-down even a K5-ish hand here. I think it's safe to lay down to the raise here. I don't see him (read being 'mostly reasonable' for now) raising with air in this spot. Just look at it more simply. You took your stab at it on a scary board hoping he'll call-down with less...he's telling you he's got more than that...for this one i'll believe him. Is that too weak? I just don't see calling-down here being successful often enough. (these, and worse, were call-downs that I would routinely make before because there's always 'that chance' they have nothing...but am learning to not do that so much..and I think this is one of those times) |
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