Good fold or horrible fold?

okayplayer · #1 11-03-2004, 05:17 PM

No reads on Villain, relatively new to table; however I did see him raise when he had the nut straight a short while ago. I have laid down AK/AQ twice when bet into on the flop (and missed) and led out with it when I hit in this short while at the table...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed)

SB (Villain) ($116.3)
BB ($194.95)
UTG ($50)
UTG+1 ($73.25)
UTG+2 ($38)
Hero ($102.5)
MP2 ($166.4)
MP3 ($46.5)
CO ($88.6)
Button ($36.6)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB (Villain) posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to $4, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB (Villain) (poster) calls $3.50, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($12) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Villain checks, BB checks, Hero bets $12, Villain raises to $30, BB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $54

When he called my PF raise, I put him on PP, AK/AQ (too narrow for Party?). On the flop I thought I had the best hand until he cr'ed me. I then thought that he had: 55, 77, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, maybe AJ(?). So I was behind all but QQ and AJ and tied with KK - but I think he would've re-raised PF with this. I think he would've led into the pot with AJ. I think Villain puts me on overpair and thus check-raises me, because I think he wants me to push (having a set or AA). Normally, I would say that a set would slowplay this board having put me on overpair, but I think that Villain feels that an A or maybe even a K could kill the action on the turn, so he wants to get it all in on the flop. Is this good thinking, or am I giving to much credit to Villain and should push this?

amoeba · #2 11-03-2004, 05:31 PM

I think this is one of those if the second hand is between 10 and 2 push, all other times fold scenarios.

the fold is fine though. certainly not the worst move you can make.

tdomeski · #3 11-03-2004, 08:23 PM

I'm concerned about your thinking on this hand. I like that you are thinking visibly about his possible holdings given the PF action, I like that you are thinking about what he is thinking about. I DON'T like what your thoughts are as far as pot progression.

First off, you are giving NOTHING away by folding here. Against most players this is a clear EV+. So you can pick another spot with another hand. However you are giving yourself two viable options on the flop, you say:

[ QUOTE ]
am I giving to much credit to Villain and should push this?

[/ QUOTE ]

You should never push this hand in this situation. If you push this flop you either win a small pot or lose a big one. If you want to play this hand you have to call the flop then check/call or check/raise the turn. You can check/call the turn the lead out on the river if no Ace of Jack has hit. YOU WANT TO SET YOURSELF UP TO EITHER LOSE A BIG POT OR WIN A BIG POT. That is, if you play this hand out.

Like I said though, a fold is OK by all means. But, a push is just horrible. Absolutely horrible.

okayplayer · #4 11-03-2004, 08:37 PM

Thanks for the detailed reply.
[ QUOTE ]
I'm concerned about your thinking on this hand. I like that you are thinking visibly about his possible holdings given the PF action, I like that you are thinking about what he is thinking about. I DON'T like what your thoughts are as far as pot progression.

First off, you are giving NOTHING away by folding here. Against most players this is a clear EV+. So you can pick another spot with another hand. However you are giving yourself two viable options on the flop, you say:

[ QUOTE ]
am I giving to much credit to Villain and should push this?

[/ QUOTE ]

You should never push this hand in this situation. If you push this flop you either win a small pot or lose a big one. If you want to play this hand you have to call the flop then check/call or check/raise the turn. You can check/call the turn the lead out on the river if no Ace of Jack has hit. YOU WANT TO SET YOURSELF UP TO EITHER LOSE A BIG POT OR WIN A BIG POT. That is, if you play this hand out.

Like I said though, a fold is OK by all means. But, a push is just horrible. Absolutely horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, the reason for my thinking this was a push/fold is because of stack size. If I only call the c/r, then I have ~$68 left when the pot is ~$72, are you saying I call the turn when a blank hits, which would most likely be an all in? I think if I call, all I can hope for on the turn is a K (or a A or J, which would make my decision easy).

I agree with you that I want to either lose a small one or win a big one, so that's why I folded. (I think you meant to say: you want to set yourself up to either lose a small pot or win a big one...)

tdomeski · #5 11-03-2004, 08:43 PM

No, no. .

If you play that hand with his aggession the pot is going to be big. If you re raise the flop, the pot is going to be big. If he calls you are going to lose a big pot. If he folds you are going to win a small pot. If you call the flop and lose you are still going to lose a big pot. BUT, suddenly, magically, you give yourself an opportunity to win a BIG POT TOO! So yes, given your stack size if a blank hits the turn you check/call all in. Why? Because your opponent will bet more hands than he will call with, thus widening the range of hands your opponent can hold, giving you the favorite over that range of hands.

If he checks behind on the turn, then you play poker on the river. If a blank falls you can throw out a value bet if you think he may call or check and try to snap off a bluff/limit your loss when you are beat.

okayplayer · #6 11-03-2004, 09:01 PM

Ok, thanks. I think I get your line of thinking... push is -EV, whereas a call is maybe -EV, but definitely not as bad as a push. Villain was first to act though, so would you check behind on the turn assuming a blank falls (and then give him a chance to make a mistake/bluff at the river)? If he pushes the turn, call? I guess that's why I folded, and I think that that was the best play, and I'm beginning to feel that you think the same?

tdomeski · #7 11-03-2004, 09:06 PM

I think I misread the betting action. .It doesn't really make that much of a difference. Clearly, with no read, I believe a fold is best in that situation. Pick a better spot. But if you are going to play it you can't push the flop. IF he pushes the turn you call. If he checks the turn you got to play poker. Is he checking b/c he is giving up his flop bluff? I don't know. Clearly though you don't push the turn if he checks. You bet $30, then the rest on the river. You have to think about how the money gets in the pot. You are giving him a chance to fold the worst hand if he checks the turn and you push behind.

But yes, fold is good.

pilamsolo · #8 11-03-2004, 10:01 PM

Let me start by saying that you only have $16 invested in a pot that will most likely end up all-in if you continue, therefore I don't think it's a horrible fold. That said though, I still don't like it.

This is a good flop for your Kings, and it's a fabulous flop for a set. With your tight image he has to put you on AK AQ or a big pair. If he has a set, why make a big raise on the flop? He shuts out the BB and risks losing you if you missed. Also, unless he thinks you raise with AJ, this is a flop that very well could have missed you. You said you've already laid down 2 hands after PF raising, and this is not a small, action inviting raise. This is a "put a man to a decision" raise and I don't think he wants action here. To me it smells like an overplayed AJ.

-Solo

tdomeski · #9 11-03-2004, 10:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Let me start by saying that you only have $16 invested in a pot that will most likely end up all-in if you continue

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a "put a man to a decision" raise and I don't think he wants action here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Many people play sets like this if they think their opponent will overplay a pocket pair because there are a lot of cards that could kill their action if their opponent has something like QQ on a Jack high board.

I like the fold. What is your plan after his flop raise if you are going to continue the hand?

pilamsolo · #10 11-03-2004, 10:55 PM

I agree almost 100% with what you said in one of the earlier posts. The best way to continue (if you continue) is to call the flop raise, since AJ or anything else you beat will probably fold to a push while a set will definately call you. If a blank falls on the turn and he fires again then we get all the money in. If he checks the turn I would bet around $35 (which I think you also said earlier).

-Solo