KQs short stacked BB, reraised pot

[betgo]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP2 (t5631)
MP3 (t10500)
CO (t22125)
Button (t7210)
SB (t11060)
Hero (t4860)
UTG (t6750)
UTG+1 (t19902)
MP1 (t18717)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to t3250</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t22125</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero ???

[Matador225]

Looks like CO is trying to protect a vulnerable pair, maybe 88-QQ. I'd call and hope he has a pair and not AK. UTG+1 probably folds and you could be in a great situation to triple up.

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP2 (t5631)
MP3 (t10500)
CO (t22125)
Button (t7210)
SB (t11060)
Hero (t4860)
UTG (t6750)
UTG+1 (t19902)
MP1 (t18717)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to t3250</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t22125</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero ???

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What are the money situations?

[JustPlayingSmart]

I like a call here. Your biggest worry here is AK, AQ (although QQ-AA are obviously possible). Everything else you're barely behind. You're getting well over 2-1 on your money, and your call decreases the chances of UTG+1 calling even more. No way are you a 2-1 dog to the reraiser's range. Now that I look think about it, I can't see folding here, unless the reraiser is an asbolute rock.

[MeanGreenTT]

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....You're getting well over 2-1 on your money, and your call decreases the chances of UTG+1 calling even more.

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Anyone think utg calls here and if so, does that change the call line? He just put 1/2 his stack in the middle and is getting great odds.

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone think utg calls here and if so, does that change the call line? He just put 1/2 his stack in the middle and is getting great odds.

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utg+1 was the raiser, and he only put like 1/6th of his stack in, so he could very well fold. however, any reads on him could change this. he raised to over 4xBB, which for some players who change their amount based on their hand this could mean TT-KK, which he almost certainly won't fold. same goes for pusher. he really has to push if he reraises, so its hard to say if his push means much, other than he likes his hand vs. an EP raiser (if he thinks at all). i'd be pretty worried about AA-QQ, AK, AQ from him.

i don't think you're in good shape here, but pot odds might still make a call correct. i'd probably want AQ, or 99 to go here, but i'd bet its at least pretty close for your KQs one way or the other.

[MLG]

seems like a pretty straight forward fold.

If we put UTG+1 on a range of 88 and up, A10 and up, KQ/KJ, and CO on 10s and up, AK/AQ then we can do some math. Assuming if we call UTG+1 will only call AK/AA/KK/QQ/JJ then he will call 40/138. The other 98/138 you will be going HU with the CO. So now we figure out how we fair against each of those rnages, hurray pokerstove. I'll do some rounding to make it easier. When UTG calls we are basically tripling up to 15k when we win, which according to pokerstove is 20% of the time (techincally 19.2%). When we are HU against CO we double to 10k 32% of the time (31.4% exactly). So the math looks like this.

(40/138)(15x.2)+(98/138))(10x.32)=(.29)(3)+(.71)(3.2)=.87+2.272=3.142k

So calling gets us 3142 chips, which is much less than the 4860 we started with.

[betgo]

I folded, but I think it was a really bad play. I thought the early position 4xBB raise was 99-KK or AQ-AK. I thought the raiser was going to call, and I figured atleast one villain had me dominated.

The original raiser folded, so I would have gotten 3-1 pot odds. I was probably dominated, but it was an easy pot odds call.

Even with the chance 2nd position would call, I think I had to call with my suited connector. If 2nd position calls, and one opponent dominates KQs, I am probably about a 3-1 dog and I have 3-1 pot odds. There is some possibility that neither player dominates me and I am about a 2-1 dog or it could be worse if someone has AA or KK. I am well ahead of the 3-1 pot odds heads up against the reraiser's range of hands. On balance the call is EV+.

The money situation was this was a 20-table SNG 15 players left and 18 places paying. No jump in payouts until the real money at the final table.

[MLG]

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I folded, but I think it was a really bad play.

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Did you look at my math? This is a pretty clear fold.