extremely boring standard hand

[1800GAMBLER]

with a poll, and boring to answer questions.

7 handed 30/60. not played by i; i'm watching hands of others.

hero raises AKo CO. BB calls.

Flop: 2h 5h Ao. We have no hearts.

Villian leads. Thoughts on any hand here with percentages? What about the flush draw, do we think villians lead that here?

Hero raises. Call.

Turn: 9h.

Hero bets and gets c/r'ed; thoughts on hand range? yep. nothing more.

[vmacosta]

"What about the flush draw, do we think villians lead that here?" I would.
Hand ranges:
50% flush
10% set
10% Two pair
20% A with big heart draw.
10% crap
Call against players with standard aggression and higher, fold against passive players.

[fnord_too]

I'm assuming the 30/60 game is pretty aggressive. Villain probably sees hero's range as big ace or mid-high PP. I think on the flop villain can have any ace, a heart draw, or PP here, and a very small chance he is on complete air and just putting on a play.

On the turn, I think villains range is still pretty wide. I would say the Ahx hands go up in probability, but he could be making this play with any hand that beats hero since TPGtoT kicker is the most likely top of hero's range of hands, but he could also be putting on a lot of pressure with a weaker (possibly completely missed) hand (since if hero does not have at least aces or a big heart that check raise is going to be really hard to call).

So basicly, I don't think we can narrow down villains holdings enough to make this a good fold (getting 4:1 calling here and a river lead) we need to call down, and it does not seem too close to me.

How to proceed on the turn is totally opponent based. Against a passive opponent I think we have an easy fold. Against the usual 30-60 opponent you have an easy call down. One more thing, anyone see anything wrong with checking the turn to induce a bluff if youre facing a tricky aggressive opponent?

[Lestat]

[ QUOTE ]
"What about the flush draw, do we think villians lead that here?" I would.
Hand ranges:
50% flush
10% set
10% Two pair
20% A with big heart draw.
10% crap
Call against players with standard aggression and higher, fold against passive players.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about a wheel?

Also, why do you give two pair and a set the same likelihood? People call raises from the bb with AX. I think if the flop came AQX you can discount two-pair a little more, because there are now potential counterfeit outs. But if he's got A5 here, you're gonna have to hit twice.

I'm one of the rare birds who can fold AK on the turn here to an unkown with this board. Then again, I probably wouldn't have raised the flop thereby avoiding such a dilemna on the turn. If he's bluffing, good for him. But he'll have me beat often enough and I'll let him pay me off when he's drawing dead, instead of giving him the same courtesy.

Edit:
I really think these auto-payoffs are the single biggest mistakes I see from otherwise good players. They are so afraid of being out-played they just can't fold any hand that has some chance of winning. I can tell you that they pay me off WAY too often and it's why I don't always mind seeing players with tight/aggressive numbers in my game. Now as for the few who are good enough NOT to pay me off... That's a different story.

[tpir90036]

[ QUOTE ]
I really think these auto-payoffs are the single biggest mistakes I see from otherwise good players. They are so afraid of being out-played they just can't fold any hand that has some chance of winning.

[/ QUOTE ]
I have this problem a lot. Especially on-line. It's easy to get into auto-showdown mode when the aggro people in these games have such horrible shania for their turn check-raises. It's also easy to convince yourself that folding top pair heads-up is horribly weak even though we have a read to the contrary and the pot is not all that big. Good post.

Still learning,
tpir

just throwing it out there, but what about 3 betting the turn, if it gets capped you can surely fold although you would be folding a pretty big pot. Then maybe re-evaluating on the river if he just calls the turn.

[vmacosta]

Yeah you're right. You can pretty much ignore the exact percentages but I think you're behind most of the time and if you're ahead, most of those times he's drawing quite live....which is why its very close.

[bobdibble]

Lestat, what do you think about a middle ground?

If I'm hero, I'm raising the flop and calling a flop re-raise. If the turn is a non-heart I'm bet/calling-a-cr or raise/calling-a-3-bet. If the turn is a heart, I'm checking the turn and calling a river bet or bet/calling-a-cr if checked to.

[sfer]

From most opponents I expect more preflop/flop action from Ahxh/xhxh/Ax type hands.