Stud stats - are these cold cards or typical?

[lstream]

I had a sense that I have hit a run of cold cards, so I have started to keep detailed stats of my hands. For the past week or so, I have been averaging 79% unplayable hands on third street. By unplayable I mean no flush draw, no pairs worth keeping (small - mid pairs, where one is dead or there is no decent overcard, or both) - usually just three unrelated cards. Of my opening hands ( the last 21%), only 9% or so are playable to the end.

I do a reasonable amount of semi-bluffing, and I think I am a somewhat aggressive player. I'm not waiting for the perfect hand, by any means. The net result is that I am only winning about 5.5% of the hands I am playing. The other interesting number is that duiring this cold spell, I am winning 55 - 65% of the hands I compete for. The thing is, I don't compete for many, so making any money is a real chore.

Are these really cold cards like I think, or are these typical numbers? The ante alone is costing me a fair bit of money with these stats.

[AdamK]

21% of starting hands seems about right to me - certainly not a run of cold cards.
Dont know about the 9% playable to the river - i dont keep such stats.
And if most of the pots are multi-way, then winning 55-65% of them sounds fine too.
Making $ can be chore [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
Without any further information it's hard to give you advice.

[BeerMoney]

Of those hands you play, only seeing the river 9% of the time seems low. IF you're folding heads up often, you're probably folding too much.

What game are you playing, and how are you keeping track of these stats?

[jon_1van]

Are you playing a high ante game ?

[lstream]

I am playing a $3/$6 game on-line at Empire Poker, and the ante is $0.50. Of the hands that I end up winning, I would guess that half or so end up as multiway. For tracking, I wrote a small little program that has some buttons on it. Buttons are labled with outcomes like Fold Third, Fold Bring-In, etc. Every time I press a button, new totals are calculated. I then put the results in a spreadsheet for further calculation.

[rdu $teve]

Could I trouble you for a copy of that program?

stevedonel@yahoo.com

I can paypal you a reasonable amount of $$, if you like.

[Andy B]

21% seems about right for a typical $3/6 game. If the game is more aggressive, then you should probably be playing fewer hands. The 5.5% number seems low, but I don't track stuff like that (I play live). You might be giving up too soon too often, or you may not have enough data to draw any meaningful conclusions.

[lstream]

Andy - thanks for the reply. The 5% number seems low to me too, but for the sessions I have been tracking so far, I am folding often on later streets because there is no real improvement on 4'th and 5'th.

I have logged a smaller number of sessions were things have gone better, and it feels like I am getting my "fair share" of decent cards. In those cases, I am winning 10 - 20% of all hands, which feels better, given that most games have 8 players.

As I plug away, it will be interesting to see how these numbers net out over time.