#1
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$55: Call a push with OE Straight Flush draw
I'm thinking I should have folded since it was so early and I wasn't the one pushing all in. Right?
***** Hand History for Game 2999067190 ***** NL Texas Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:17223830 Level:3 Blinds(25/50) - Monday, November 07, 21:44:53 EDT 2005 Table Table 67095 (Real Money) Seat 1 is the button Total number of players : 9 Seat 1: Max3791 ( $1630 ) Seat 2: TheBoy5000 ( $1055 ) Seat 3: ten100 ( $2470 ) Seat 4: vitico4400 ( $450 ) Seat 5: BissBass ( $1260 ) Seat 6: bigdog911891 ( $455 ) Seat 7: OXOTHuK ( $925 ) Seat 8: urbeatagain ( $710 ) Seat 9: hero( $1045 ) Trny:17223830 Level:3 Blinds(25/50) ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to Hero[ J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] vitico4400 calls [50]. BissBass calls [50]. bigdog911891 folds. OXOTHuK folds. urbeatagain folds. Hero calls [50]. Max3791 raises [100]. TheBoy5000 folds. ten100 calls [50]. vitico4400 calls [50]. BissBass calls [50]. Hero calls [50]. ** Dealing Flop ** [ 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ] ten100 is all-In. vitico4400 folds. BissBass folds. Hero is all-In. |
#2
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Re: $55: Call a push with OE Straight Flush draw
Nine outs to the nut flush
Three outs to the nut straight (but might be a split pot) Three possible outs to a straight (with an 8) Maybe three A outs Looks like more than enough to call. |
#3
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Re: $55: Call a push with OE Straight Flush draw
Doesn't it matter that my stack is fine and I'm probably only a 55-45 favorite?
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#4
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Re: $55: Call a push with OE Straight Flush draw
Worst case scenario he has KdJd, against that you're 42.73% to win, against every other possible holding you're a favorite to win, so I'd have to think he had the straight for me to fold.
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#5
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Re: $55: Call a push with OE Straight Flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't it matter that my stack is fine and I'm probably only a 55-45 favorite? [/ QUOTE ] Calling 975 to win 2425 as a 55% favorite? This price completely overwhelms any future +EV considerations. |
#6
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Re: $55: Call a push with OE Straight Flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't it matter that my stack is fine and I'm probably only a 55-45 favorite? [/ QUOTE ] Seems unlikey that you're that big a favorite. You're a 60-40 dog to a set, 57-43 to a KJ straight, and I think they're probably more likely to play it this way than top pair, to which you are a 55-45 favorite. Overall, I think you're a likely dog to the range of hands you should expect to see, though there may be enough in the middle to make it a correct call on pot odds. I doubt that taking what is unlikely to be much better than a flip this early is +$EV, though. |
#7
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Re: $55: Call a push with OE Straight Flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
Worst case scenario he has KdJd, against that you're 42.73% to win, against every other possible holding you're a favorite to win, so I'd have to think he had the straight for me to fold. [/ QUOTE ] Just to nitpick: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1331762 pokenum -h ac jc - 9c 9s -- qc tc 9d Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Qc Tc 9d cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Ac Jc 398 40.20 583 58.89 9 0.91 0.407 9s 9c 583 58.89 398 40.20 9 0.91 0.593 But I'm still calling. |
#8
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Re: $55: Call a push with OE Straight Flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Doesn't it matter that my stack is fine and I'm probably only a 55-45 favorite? [/ QUOTE ] Seems unlikey that you're that big a favorite. You're a 60-40 dog to a set, 57-43 to a KJ straight, and I think they're probably more likely to play it this way than top pair, to which you are a 55-45 favorite. Overall, I think you're a likely dog to the range of hands you should expect to see, though there may be enough in the middle to make it a correct call on pot odds. I doubt that taking what is unlikely to be much better than a flip this early is +$EV, though. [/ QUOTE ] Pot odds say 40% is a call, and that's worst case. ICM considerations and future +EV don't make enough of a difference to matter. You just can't pass this up. |
#9
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Re: $55: Call a push with OE Straight Flush draw
I think I'd have to call here. River a royal.
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#10
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Re: $55: Call a push with OE Straight Flush draw
Yes, I'd call too with 500 chips in the middle already, but I wouldn't be too happy about it. However, I don't think KJ pushes first to act on this flop. A set, sure.
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