99, confused on the flop

einbert · #1 06-19-2005, 08:49 PM

My opponent in this hand has TAGish stats. He is 20/11/1.7 over 164 hands so far.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, CO raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, CO calls.

Flop: (6.66 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises

I am trying to figure out what hands we would do this with. I can see AA playing this way but would AK, KQ really play this fast on the flop? It just seems strange to me. Please help me figure out this guy's range of hands so I can make a good decision for the rest of the hand.

SmileyEH · #2 06-19-2005, 08:53 PM

I feel like AK and KQ would both cap preflop in this spot. I'm really tempted to call this one down.

-SmileyEH

toss · #3 06-19-2005, 08:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
would AK, KQ really play this fast on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe he's an unimaginative straightforward TAG. I dunno how 15/30 games are though. I would fold here.

jgorham · #4 06-19-2005, 08:55 PM

I don't think it is that strange for a TAG to play a K fast in heads up blind battles. So I think his hand range here includes a lot of K hands. But his range here also contains just about any pocket pair, A5, as well as some big aces looking for free cards. Probably even some other weaker hands just trying to push you around on that dry board.

So I would probably 3bet the flop here. If capped, I would call and probably check/fold the turn (that move would take away a lot of the range we are ahead of).

einbert · #5 06-19-2005, 08:56 PM

I agree that AK seems an unlikely holding, given that villian didn't cap preflop and raised me on the flop.

Why do you think KQ is likely to be capped preflop? What do you think about AQ?

SmileyEH · #6 06-19-2005, 08:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that AK seems an unlikely holding, given that villian didn't cap preflop and raised me on the flop.

Why do you think KQ is likely to be capped preflop? What do you think about AQ?

[/ QUOTE ]

From my limited experience at 15/30 in blind steal situations players are hyper aggressive-capping a wide range of holdings. I can seem him capping AA-88 preflop, plus AK-AT and KQ and certainly some other random hands.

-SmileyEH

toss · #7 06-19-2005, 09:00 PM

I think KQ is more likely to be capped PF since the CO thinks that you think CO won't have a good as hand as KQ and will cap for value against your looser 3-betting standards. AQ would probably cap here.

jskills · #8 06-19-2005, 10:21 PM

I see your point about AK. The flop is so uncoordinated, a TAG would likely just call and go for the turn C/R. I could see the range here being:

KQ, KJs, KTs, and maybe even 88.

aK13 · #9 06-19-2005, 10:23 PM

I'm calling down no matter what here. (well, as long as teh board doesn't get too bad)

dealer_toe · #10 06-19-2005, 10:51 PM

K9s KT KJ or even K8s are possible. what hands does he not cap that he raises the flop w/ no piece. 77 or 66 are possible, QJ QT JT A9 or so. I'm calling down here