PLO8, raise the turn here?

[emptyshell]

I'll give my reasoning later.

$400 PL Omaha Hi/Lo
MP1 ( $589.75 ), UTG ( $688.80 ), UTG+2 ( $158 ),
CO ( $584.40 ), BB ( $404.50 ), MP2 ( $376 ),
Hero ( $462.54 ), BUT ( $411.15 ), UTG+1 ( $408.80 )

Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
++--++

Hero posts $2.
BB posts $4.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $4, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls $4, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>,
Hero calls $2, BB checks

<font color="blue">Flop</font>: (15.20) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero checks.
BB checks.
UTG+1 checks.
MP1 bets $15.
Hero calls $15.
BB folds.
UTG+1 folds.

<font color="blue">Turn</font>: (43.70) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero checks.
MP1 bets $43.70.
Hero ?

[gergery]

Call and lead most river cards, then reevaluate if raised

[Mendacious]

I very well might raise, and I'd probably be screwed!

The reason behind a raise would be to chase the low?
Clearly you may be behind, and if he calls your raise then leads out again, then what, especially if a low card comes on the river.

I think I would be somewhat afraid of a 22xx (where xx are two wheel cards. But I'm a little paranoid because I had a record shitty day, and every freakin turn card blocked a hand that I was sure I was leading with on the flop, and when I played it out, they always had it. And everytime I jammed the turn with +ev, I got rivered on HUGE pots. So I hate everything but the nuts at the moment.

[Wintermute]

He very likely does not have a flush since you have the card in your hand blocks the K-high &amp; contains three spades... so I'd put him on either A3J or a made boat. Possibly A3 and small spades--but that's far less likely than a hand you currently trail.

Without any reads, I'd just call and see what the river brings. If you trail you have 9 outs, if you lead you'd like to keep the pot small so that you can afford to look him up if the river bricks for you. Only way raising is correct is if you have a strong read that he's full of [censored] or overplaying a low draw.

I think raising the turn is the wrong play. You have a strong enough hand that you want to see the river for cheap and hopefully show it down. I would call and then check the river regaurdless of what hit if you don't fill up. If a low card hit and you lead the chance of getting raised is high and then you would have to make a tough decision for 1/2 the pot most likely. If a high card hit that didn't fill you up checking would be correct because you could induce a bluff with a bust low draw and a vast majority of the hands he will call with you can't beat. If the river fills you up my action would depend on my image and the other player. To raise the turn I think you have to have a tremendous read that he has a naked low draw or low draw with a weak high hand.

[joewatch]

I'm new to this game, but I'll have a go...

I think you should raise the turn here. Not the pot, but may just to $100. That is just the right amount to get Villain to fold if he is betting a drawing hand or 2nd flush, and he will reraise you if he has the nut high.

[Mendacious]

Sorry, but I don't follow that logic or the conclusions from it.

1) Villian will not necessarily fold the low draw when he is only betting another $50 to draw to a pot that you have now made $200. You are giving him 2-1 odds on his low draw. Moreover, if he hits his low, now if he bets the pot you may a really tough decision if he bets the pot.

2) You don't want another flush to fold, you want it to stay because you have that hand beaten.

3) You don't want to get re-raised, if he has a better hand you want to draw for free to a better hand...which you may have 9-10 outs to getting if you see the river.

[DyessMan89]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm new to this game, but I'll have a go...

I think you should raise the turn here. Not the pot, but may just to $100. That is just the right amount to get Villain to fold if he is betting a drawing hand or 2nd flush, and he will reraise you if he has the nut high.

[/ QUOTE ]

We dont want the 2nd flush to fold.

[Chamonyx]

I think I pot it back here on the turn. The only hand he can really call with is J7, and even then you have 9 outs to outdraw him. He is probably betting with A3 and 2 spades, so make him pay for his low.

[emptyshell]

I guess Wintermute thought about it basically the same as I did. I called, planning to check-call the river if I missed; check-raise if I hit. My thinking is that the only way I could get more money out of him was if he was bluffing, was convinced his weak flush was good, had a low draw that I could charge a little more from on the turn, or if I hit the river. But I didn't want to raise the turn and then have to face the tough decision of how to deal with a re-raise.

The river was a T (blank), I checked-called a 2/3 pot size bet. He turned up some J7 crap for the scoop. It's been a tough week.