77 on a scary flop

DavidC · #1 03-25-2005, 01:07 PM

SB is LAA, BB is LPP, UTG is LPP, MP1 is TAA.

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Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero calls, MP1 raises, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls...

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Some things to consider:

I think I have implied odds for the full. I may have the best hand, or be able to knock the best hand out with a turn raise. It's unlikely that the PFR (MP1) has a Q. Someone probably has a flush draw. I will probably have to fold if there's a scary turn card.

Questions:
-Are my implied odds good enough?
-Should I call this?
-Should I raise this?
-How do I deal with different turn cards?

--Dave.

To maintain my reputation as a luck-box, I will tell the results:

-MP1 calls, turn card is the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and my opponents have a flush and a weak queen. It pretty much plays itself from there. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

btspider · #2 03-25-2005, 01:14 PM

Raise this? heck no dude..

Do you know the answer to these questions (first one is easy):

1. How many bets do you have to make up if MP just calls behind you (you put 1 SB in on the flop)?

2. How many bets do you have to make up if MP raises behind you (you put 2 SB in on the flop)?

3. How often will MP raise behind you?

davelin · #3 03-25-2005, 01:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think I have implied odds for the full.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

shark6 · #4 03-25-2005, 01:46 PM

Fold flop, try again next hand. You’re not getting odds to catch another 7.

flopwell · #5 03-25-2005, 01:53 PM

We don't have a 2 outer, we have a 4 outer. A Q or 7 gives us the boat. you need 10.5-to call a 4 outer, which we have. If MP1 raises, though, we don't have the odds.

Redd · #6 03-25-2005, 02:06 PM

We can't guarantee that our Q outs are good. If SB is reasonable, he's either betting a queen, pumping a flush draw, or possibly betting some mid pp.

Plus, MP3 is more likely to have a queen since many PFR hands contain queens, which would cripple our outs and likely make us pay 2 or more bets on the flop. IMO a call is slim without MP3, and his presence behind us pushes it into -EV.

shark6 · #7 03-25-2005, 02:06 PM

The Q outs don’t count fully. Someone could have another Q, pockets 99+, or overcards to your 7’s that you would have to dodge on the turn and river if a Q did fall. I’d say your Q outs are worth 0.25 to 0.5 outs at best.

I’m still not convinced a call or raise is in order yet.

DavidC · #8 03-25-2005, 02:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
We can't guarantee that our Q outs are good. If SB is reasonable, he's either betting a queen, pumping a flush draw, or possibly betting some mid pp.

Plus, MP3 is more likely to have a queen since many PFR hands contain queens, which would cripple our outs and likely make us pay 2 or more bets on the flop. IMO a call is slim without MP3, and his presence behind us pushes it into -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, if I hit my Q I could get behind to AA-TT.

Someone could go perfect perfect for the straight flush, but ti doesn't impact me because it would be impossible for me to hit my 7.

Edit: However, the Q outs is a good point, I never thought of that!

DavidC · #9 03-25-2005, 02:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The Q outs don’t count fully. Someone could have another Q, pockets 99+, or overcards to your 7’s that you would have to dodge on the turn and river if a Q did fall. I’d say your Q outs are worth 0.25 to 0.5 outs at best.

I’m still not convinced a call or raise is in order yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Firstly, I'd like to say that your approach to this has been mostly opinion, which is okay as long as you realize that you do need numbers eventually. BTS gave me some info as to the approach I should use to determining that, which is very helpful.

And a quick correction. I only have to dodge the river overcards, unless the turn gets checked through, which isn't likely. MP1's raise PF indicates that there aren't quite as many overcards as one would expect, either.

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

shark6 · #10 03-25-2005, 02:36 PM

Correction noted on dodging the over card on the river only.

I did give numbers, 0.25 to 0.5 outs for the Q’s. Calculating effective outs does require some degree of estimation (opinion), which is what I was doing.