top two pair question

ep510 · #1 05-09-2005, 12:11 AM

Do we call or raise MP1 on turn?

-Eric

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $3.
UTG calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO (poster) calls, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls, CO folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, MP1 raises, SB folds, BB calls, UTG folds, Hero...

Pokey · #2 05-09-2005, 12:31 AM

Preflop raise is good: you've got a high-value hand, and you should be betting accordingly.

Flop bet is good, too: you're going to be ahead quite often on this board, and you keep up with the value bets.

Turn Q is fantastic for you: you've caught top two pair. What's this? MP1 wants to be a cheekly little monkey when the Q turns? Thank you, Mr. MP1! Not only have you helped thin the field, but you've given me a terrific opportunity to three-bet for value. What hands beat you?

AA raises preflop, and raises the flop.
QQ typically raises preflop.
54 should have folded preflop.
22 and 33 should fold preflop.

In the hands of a reasonable player, MP1 has nothing that beats you. Most likely, you're facing a nut flush draw here, or a straight flush draw. Even if you put a small probability on him having something weird, you've got four outs to the boat and you've got BB feeding more dead money into the hand. Reraise the turn for value. If he caps, consider slowing down if the river is VERY scary.

ep510 · #3 05-09-2005, 01:01 AM

Ok. So I did indeed 3-bet the turn. MP1 caps! BB calls again?! Of course, I call.

River comes 8c, completing a possible flush draw. BB folds??!!

Do I bet and call a raise here? Or do I check call?

-Eric

damaniac · #4 05-09-2005, 01:15 AM

While your analysis is good, I don't think one should assume the villain plays "reasonably" by folding, for ex, small pairs to a raise or not raising AA/QQ. I see that all the time. That being said, easy 3-bet, call the cap and probably just call the river unless you think he's more likely to be getting real aggressive with A2/A3.

chesspain · #5 05-09-2005, 01:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Do I bet and call a raise here? Or do I check call?

[/ QUOTE ]

His turn cap combined with the club falling makes this an easy checkcall. Indeed, since I don't feel like calling a raise, I'll take the chance that he might check behind with a lower two-pair hand...although he might certainly bet with any lower two-pair, not believing that we have the flush either.

Pokey · #6 05-09-2005, 01:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
While your analysis is good, I don't think one should assume the villain plays "reasonably" by folding, for ex, small pairs to a raise or not raising AA/QQ. I see that all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Allow me to elaborate: reasonable players fold small pairs when first in after an early raiser, and reasonable players always raise AA or QQ preflop. Unfortunately, many, Many, MANY low-limit players are not reasonable. They are, in fact, absolutely attrocious. With no read, it's an unfortunate truth that we can't trust MP1 to NOT have these random hands; however, they are still low-probability hands, just from random chance.

An opponent capable of making an outrageously bad call with 54 or 33 as first in after an early raiser is just as likely to cold call with any stupid hand, and we're still likely to be way ahead. Furthermore, playing as though our opponents always have the insane random hands that beat us is a great way to lose money by turning so timid that we never play our hands with the aggression needed to be long term winners.

Pokey · #7 05-09-2005, 01:48 AM

Call the turn cap (of course) and check-call the river. With the most likely drawing hand catching good on the river, we've got to concede the possibility that we've been outdrawn. There's a (highly unlikely) straight on the board, but there's also a (far less unlikely) flush, too. If we add in the chance for random sets, we could easily be behind here. However, the pot is offering us terrific odds, so we've got to see this showdown for one.

Note that the river call is crying -- we're going to lose far more often than we win, here. Still, with the massive pot we don't have to win very often for the call to be right.

ep510 · #8 05-09-2005, 03:00 AM

I agree that the straight possibility is highly unlikely. I would also say that the flush possibility is very unlikely as well.

What kind of flush would villian have here? I can't think of any that would be likely. Kx of clubs will not cap turn here (except for real maniacs, but assume that villian isn't). 32 clubs? I seriously doubt it. Maybe 54 clubs, but also unlikely considering the pf raise.

Does this logic change your position on the river? I can only seriously consider giving credit for 33 at this point, and less seriously, 54 clubs. Will this happen often enough to not value bet?

-Eric

Pokey · #9 05-09-2005, 10:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that the straight possibility is highly unlikely. I would also say that the flush possibility is very unlikely as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't help but agree. With the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] both accounted for, few flush draws can logically survive this hand long enough to make good.

[ QUOTE ]
Does this logic change your position on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh, I wish it could. Unfortunately, we're arguing from the perspective of a GOOD player -- a logical, thinking, high-quality, decent, honest, hard-working, sane opponent. I see shockingly few of these at the 2/4 tables, and without a read, I simply can't trust that our opponent is obeying our rules.

Lots of 2/4 PP players will play a small pocket pair to the river, or even a showdown, unimproved.

Lots of 2/4 PP players consider "any two suited" to be worth seeing a flop for ANY price, and consider "three to the flush" to be a worthwhile draw postflop.

Given these realities, two things become clear:
1. You could be beaten here.
2. Party Poker is going to be very profitable for you in the long run.

These die-hard chasers are going to positively line our pockets with gold in the long run, but they WILL catch lucky on us here and there.

[ QUOTE ]
I can only seriously consider giving credit for 33 at this point, and less seriously, 54 clubs. Will this happen often enough to not value bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Even adding in the other random hands that stupid players play that might beat you, the raw odds of you being ahead are extremely high. Unfortunately, we have to adjust those raw odds based on the play in the hand.

MP1 CAPPED THE TURN.

I'm really not sure what that means. Depending on MP1, that could mean a slow-played straight or set, it could mean a straight flush draw, it could mean TPTK, or it could mean "I'm too drunk to call." However, that action alone is enough to slow me down and change my mental odds. Most players aren't going to cap this turn without power. Of the ones that cap on the draw, that river club makes most of them a better hand than yours. Given the turn play and the river card, I've got to be seriously afraid that my opponent's hand is good. I'm not going to be so afraid that I fold, but I'm also not going to get into a raising war with top two pair.

If I had a read on MP1, I could make a far better decision. Against a TAG, I'm pushing back with raises. Against a maniac, I'm capping the river. Against a fish, I'm calling the turn reraise and calling down. No matter what, I'm going to see the showdown with this hand and with the pot this large, but without a read, I'm just not convinced that I win this hand 2/3 of the time (a good general rule for what's required to bet or raise the river heads-up).

Buckmulligan · #10 05-09-2005, 11:10 AM

I think I like a call on the turn and a bet/call on the river.